While a blizzard opens April on the Plains, the pattern remains chilly across much of the US. Another storm follows the current one but there are signs of change, real change towards the middle part of April.
Want to show you something I don’t often and should show more. The MJO.
We’re currently in phase 3 entering phase 4 as you can see below.
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These are cold phases but notice phase 4 sees warmer in the central plains. This supports colder in the East through the first half of April but I think we finally break the cold stronghold later next month.
CFSv2 Is Hinting At Spring’s Arrival In Week 4!
Severe Season Still Sleeping But For How Long?
The severe weather season, like last year has gotten off to a very quiet start, primarily due to the cold pattern dominating the United States. However, again, like last year.. once we begin to see some heat push north, there will be more atmospheric battle and thus the season should kick off.
The CFSv2 is strongly hinting at something more spring-like into the second half of April and with a still active Pacific pattern, we should see the ingredients coming together. The warm Gulf waters concern me as a warmer Gulf points to more humidity and warmth lifting north into the Lower 48 when storms cross the country. More fuel for severe outbreaks.
I recon the season kicks off mid-April.
Some Suggesting A Strong El Nino? Cold PDO, Models Suggest Otherwise…
Had we been in a warm PDO and modelling suggested that warmest SST’s in the equatorial Pacific been up against South America then I would be thinking this type of winter for the United States next year.
Source: AccuWeather
Water temperatures in the Pacific would resemble this.
But, there’s strong indication that waters looks more like this.
Note the warmest waters are already out into the central Pacific as early as the summer according to the Jamstec.
They look like this into the fall.
A very different outcome for next winter based on those waters being warmest out into the central region. Another aspect supporting cold is the warm pool lingering in the Gulf of Alaska.
As for California rainfall, many associate El Nino with rain but like temperature, a lot depends on the type of Nino. Again, warm PDO/stronger Nino would likely result in this.
BUT, a weak (modoki) Nino actually supports more this.
As for the hurricane season. A weak Nino would have LESS negative influence on the Atlantic, however there would be some but my real concern is just how warm the waters are across the western Atlantic extending through the Caribbean into the Gulf. Doesn’t have to be a big year in terms of numbers for it to be a bad year.
The US has been largely spared in the past 3 years but I fear this year could have it’s issues regarding storms which develop and become strong in close to the US. Andrew is a perfect example of an overall quiet year but the devastation ONE storm can have. As I’ve stated previous, Andrew was the first storm back in August 1992 and hit S Florida as a Cat 5 during an EL NINO year!
Again, here’s the current SST’s. Note the Atlantic into the Gulf. Now look at the projected SST’s off the Jamstec for the summer above!
Video tomorrow!
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