The spring forecast will be released in the coming days but I have deliberately held back on putting a forecast out. The reason is that we’re talking about a cold AMO signal along with a potential El Nino forming this summer. These factors along with the wet soils across Ireland and the UK will have impact on the summer and what type of summer we have, well a lot depends on the spring.

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As it stands, I believe we’ll have a spring of mixed fortune. What I mean by that is that we’ll likely have spells of ridging like we have this week, while colder, wetter times will also visit. The abnormally cold over warm waters extending from North America to Ireland, doesn’t bode well.

Check out the water temps this time last year… Warm throughout the Atlantic and because of the cold trough over Britain during March, waters immediately surrounding the UK were cooling.

Here’s the end of last March.

Last spring was the coldest in 50 years for the UK and along with the cold came drier than normal weather. Because of the water temp profile of the North Atlantic/surrounding UK and the DRY ground, this suggested a warmer, drier summer compared to recent years.

Here’s the current SST profile. VERY different. We also have soaking ground. This suggests a milder, more mixed spring and cooler, wetter summer but there WILL BE warm spells both in spring and summer. It shouldn’t be a washout, simply because the cooler Atlantic will supply less moisture than warm water.

High pressure and drier weather has been influential to the past winter over much of Europe and I believe this will continue into the warmer months. There’s potential for a warm, even hot summer this year over central and eastern parts where the ground is drier than normal. The mean trough is likely to extend from the Atlantic into Ireland with a back and forth over the UK. Always being cooler, cloudier and wetter in the North, drier, sunnier and warmer in the South just like the Jamstec model suggests for summer.

Summer temps

cfsV2 summer precip

cfsV2 summer temps.

Had the pattern produced less rain over recent weeks and months, then I would have been swaying towards a more settled and warm summer similar to last year. However, if we happen to get that drier and cooler spring, well that may change the outcome altogether. The next 4-8 weeks will be crucial.

I will have plenty more thoughts coming up in the days and weeks ahead… Stay tuned.

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Tags: europe forecast, europe spring forecast, spring, spring 2014 forecast, summer, uk spring forecast