Modelling remains consistent with the ‘wintry’ solution to next week and while some should see snowfall across the UK and Ireland, there will always be those who remain disappointed. Next week’s coming of snow and cold has been outlined here since back last weekend and there’s really no more to add. Ironing out the details as to exactly how chilly it will be and how much snow will fall and where, remains open to question.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Another point to make is exactly what follows this short lived surge of colder air. Modelling indicates a cool down in the overall pattern and despite the return of Atlantic air next weekend into the start of February, keep in mind that the flow crossing the Atlantic is off of North America and let’s not forget the kind of cold they are about to face through next week. Pieces of that cold will become attached to the trans Atlantic jet and so we may go from a brief spell of ‘cold continental’ to ‘polar maritime’ which can still bring snow and ice.

Let’s not forget the folks on mainland Europe. While we watch the low batter us late weekend into early next week with widespread gales, even severe gales in the North and West, the cold air continues it’s westward journey underneath the 1040mb high and so snow as well as very cold air will cross Germany into the Low Countries. Let’s not forget the heavy snow expected across the Alps into the Balkans and SE Europe as warm meets cold. Temps remain in the -5 to -10C range by day across Poland into the Czech Rep, 0 to -6C towards the Low Counties and Germany (later next week). Some very cold air will also position itself over southern Norway and Denmark and it’s this air that will get picked up by the low dropping south over the UK and will get thrown our way with the easterly return flow. That wind will sure be an icy one, could see enhancement of the snow on the east coast of Scotland and England if these winds are strong and cold enough.

UK

Here’s a look at both surface and 500mb pattern including the 5,000ft temps which is a good indicator as to how that cold air over Europe is moving and will get drawn into the UK by mid to late next week. Nothing brutal but it will be a lot colder than what we’ve seen with snow risk increasing, particularly over eastern parts. As stated in today’s video uploaded earlier, a lot depends on how cold the air is as it crosses the North Sea and also how much moisture is involved.

Here’s today’s setup.

Surface

Upper (00hrs)

Surface (48 hrs)

Upper (48 hrs)

Surface (96 hrs)

Upper (96 hrs)

Surface (144 hrs)

Upper (144 hrs)

Surface (168 hrs)

Upper (168 hrs)

Surface (216 hrs)

Upper (216 hrs)

Longer Term

Latest GFS ensembles continue showing retrograde of lower than normal heights next 2 weeks in the 7 day means but notice there’s no cut off from Atlantic influence. Think we may need to wish for more southward jogs with lows like we’ll see next week for any cold spells next 2 weeks.

Here’s the 500mb MEAN height anomalies next 14 days. Note heights lower with trough axis shifting towards the UK.

Week 1

Week 2

Colder 850mb temp anomalies also shift west between week 1 and 2 indicating a cooler pattern but without seeing reds north and west which shuts down the Atlantic, we don’t see real cold.

Week 1

Week 2

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Tags: cold blast, europe cold, europe snow, European cold snap