I hate to be the bearer of bad new but prepare yourselves for MORE stormy weather coming up. We have TWO systems of concern over the next 5 days. The first will hit Friday, 2nd comes Sunday bringing a renewed flood threat as well as damaging winds. As for Europe, a large high keeps things fairly settled but cold with highs struggling to get above -13C in Moscow, -10C in Kiev and that sub-freezing air extends around that dome, parked over Scandinavia, all the way into Prague and Berlin.

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For those wishing for at least some winter here in far western Europe, whether it be cold or snow. The chances appear to be on the up AFTER the second system passes. There are indications of a much colder northwest wind developing on the backside of the Sunday system and that could bring an increased snow risk even to lower levels Monday and Tuesday. There are also hints of colder air coming in from the north and northeast later next week.

Below is the GFS surface/precipitation for this Friday! Get your brolly handy!

Saturday isn’t great with reinforcing heavy, blustery showers on the rear of Friday’s front but hot on the heels will be a potentially more troublesome system which could have pressure near Iceland diving into the 940s (mb). This low may not only be a flood producer but may present 50-70 mph winds to Ireland and the UK.

As you can see from Sunday’s chart below, that high is keeping things COLD all the way through central, even western mainland areas but this acts like a huge block, allowing the still strong Atlantic jet to form and deepen UK bound lows and it also traps lows to the south, keeping it very unsettled over the central Med. The good thing with this setup is more snow for the Alps.

105 hrs

Here’s the GFS projected 10m wind gusts (kts) Sunday at 96 hrs.

Widespread area of 40-45kts (40-50mph) across Ireland, Northern Ireland and Scotland but 60kt (69mph) gusts are expected in the Northwest and Western Isles. Exposed areas will likely see stronger!

By Monday (below), the Scandinavia blocking high sends the low’s associated front southeast of the UK and that means more Alpine snow but also cold northwest winds for the UK and perhaps a chance at seeing a little snow to lower levels.

120 hrs

On Wednesday (below), the GFS takes that very low near Iceland southward over the UK as ridging develops between Greenland and Iceland. This would herald a colder air mass coming down and with that low in place, one would watch this situation carefully. All dependant on how cold the air is which comes down with the system itself.

168 hrs

By Thursday (below), the model opens a brief window for a light NORTHEAST flow in which some of that very cold air from Scandinavia can bleed into the UK. It also would suggest a cold but pretty settled 36 hour period as high pressure settles in.

192 hrs

Finally, by next Saturday, the model has another front sweeping through and it appears to be followed by a pretty cold northwest flow.

Here’s those 5,000ft temps. Chilly for sure.

Cold Intensifies Over Russia Then Spreads West Through Next Week!

As you can see, temperatures throughout European Russia turn bitter over the next 5 days with readings in Moscow likely to fall well below -20 with some areas to the east diving into the -40s. By Sunday and into next week, the frigid air pushes into Germany, even reaching the Netherlands and Belgium with lows into the -10 to -15C range, possibly below -20C in Germany and particularly over the Alps.

The chill is also seen reaching the UK eventually.

Snowfall is becoming much more widespread as the cold gains ground and intensity.

GFS snow forecast through the next 7 days.

GFS surface temps..

24 hrs

69 hrs

108 hrs

138 hrs

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