For about two weeks now I have been saying that once we enter April’s second week, the cold pattern should begin to breakdown and that will happen during next week but it’s once the indexes return to neutral and more so, positive, then we must be watching the models to see whether they hint at ridging and finally the arrival to warmer weather.
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Indeed both ECMWF and GFS are now showing a nice ridge with warming southwest wind transporting much warmer air from the Azores up into the UK during the second half of next weekend.
Like with the cold, I also stated that we must watch the eastern US and the cold and snowy pattern they were enduring. With the negative NAO/AO signal it was only a matter of time before we got in on some cold and snow. With the upper pattern flipping around and we get into a positive NAO/AO signal, ridging will pump very warm air into the eastern US next week and so we should watch for warmth over our part of the world also with a very nice teleconnection of a ridge-trough-ridge showing up on the models.
The indexes support the warmth next Sunday and so do the models and the fact the US is warming up.
Check out the very nice Trans-Atlantic teleconnection by next Sunday. Note the ridge still over the US, although it’s axis is heading Atlantic bound. This will deepen the trough over the North Atlantic and in turn, pump the ridge from the Azores up into the UK.
Here’s a closer look at the upper chart for Sunday.
Here’s Monday.
What about the GFS?
Here’s Sunday afternoon’s 500mb and 850 temps below..
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Will have more later!
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Horray fed up with being cold!!!!!!!!!!!!!