It’s going to be a busy next 7 days with winter continuing to shake off any attempt at spring warmth, certainly across the North and East anyway. Through tonight we’ve got another clipper sliding NW to SE through Minnesota, this will produce the heaviest snows tonight across Minneapolis but like most clippers, moisture is limited with no Gulf connection. The models suggest Wisconsin see a pick up in moisture and so while 1-2″ falls across central MN, we could see a swath of 2-4″ through Wisconsin and with lake enhancement over central Michigan, expect perhaps 4-8″ in spots.

Here’s tonight’s surface map off the ECMWF.

6 hr

The clipper by Saturday will bring some wet flakes to the Baltimore-Washingon area with no accumulation expected in the DC area, perhaps a coating in Baltimore but here, like DC is on the very southern edge. Central PA into northern New Jersey looks to be the best bet for some accumulations of between 2-4″, perhaps a local 6.

18 hr

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While the clipper slides from ND to VA, high pressure builds over southern Quebec and extends into New England. The air will grow colder through late Saturday into Sunday while a bigger storm sets it’s sights on the Northern Plains Monday.

Here’s the GFS snow chart thro0ugh 60 hours. Note it’s bullish on the Upper Midwest snow, likely overdone, also note the 3-6″ it has over the mountains of WV, NW VA, that may happen actually as orographic influence gets involved.

So, by the time we get to Monday following a cold shot into the Midwest behind the clipper, the bigger storm takes to the stage over the Dakotas and Minnesota. Remember the mild in recent days across SW SD? Hope you enjoyed those 70s because by Monday you could see several inches of snow with an icy north wind and temps in the 20s, low 30s.

Check out the GFS surface chart for Monday (60 hr)

Note a LOT of moisture streaming from Arkansas and Missouri east through Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. Warm, moist air lifting north from the Gulf could stark storms, perhaps Tuesday, more so than Monday.

Here’s later Monday and notice the trough dicing into the Plains which in turn turns the flow more southerly out ahead of the cold front and storm system as it heads for Ontario.

Heck of a lot of rain is coming to areas on the western side of the Appalachains. Looks like an area stretching from Tennessee up through Kentucky, southern Ohio into Pennsylvania could see a big rain with training thunderstorms from this.

Here’s the latest QPF hich has big 7-day rainfall totals with greatest amounts extending from Alabama up through WV to coastal New England.

Severe weather is a very real possibility with this setup also.

Now, by the time we reach the late Monday-Tuesday morning period. The GFS takes all the mositure which pours down on the I-95 corridor straight out to sea whereas the ECMWF hooks it with a negatively tilted trough. The 540 line is SOUTH of New England with with that negative tilt, so Atlantic moisture gets thrown into the cold air, which has built up through this weekend and so as a result, a solid 4-8 inch, locally 12 inch snowstorm is underway across Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine. The GFS has barely anything as there is no hook of moisture into the cold air.

Check this out.

GFS..

ECMWF

Note in the above surface map the timing of the ECMWF is slower.. GFS has a tendency to kick the energy and heat to quickly east but the striking difference between the two is the ECMWF takes the moisture across the 540 line and into much colder air, presenting a real snowstorm potential.

Also note the low thicknesses diving into the Midwest on the rear of the storm. That’s a heck of a cold shot coming down!

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