1-5″ Snows Tonight From Roanoke-DC-NYC, Weekend Storm Potential Less Likely!

Written by on February 14, 2013 in Rest of Europe with 0 Comments

We will see a 1-5 inch swath of snow tonight into Thursday morning from the central Appalachians to DC, Delmarva, Atlantic City up to New York City with local amounts of 6 inches in the mountains of WV, VA, MD and PA. However a lot of the attention remains on this weekend storm potential.

Let me just say that the storm which is currently over western Canada that is heading for the Midwest that was shown to you yesterday will deepen the trough yes and will bring down the arctic air too, yes. However the energy that would make the storm which dives out of British Columbia is wanting to ride the northwesterly flow and round the base of the developing trough.

As you can see in the below charts. The trough does appear to be too far east for that system to round the trough and then ride up the East Coast. In other words, everything is moving along too fast and by the time that system makes it into the Southeast and tries to head north, the arctic front has already made it offshore. Therefore, all this weekend will be for the entire Eastern Seaboard is plain old cold!

In saying that, some models have a snowstorm for the DC, Philly area before everything pushes out to sea.

So, the first chart shows tonight’s system heading out to sea. Note the system up over the Upper Midwest, that’s responsible for carving out the next trough and delivering the cold into the Plains. Timing is everything.

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

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Now let’s skip ahead to Friday morning!

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Now according to this GFS run, high pressure builds into the East too fast with the trough and front pushing east to quick for the system to dive southeast and then manage to work north.

I am struggling to buy into any Northeast storm this weekend.

How’s the GFS temperature anomalies looking as we look ahead?

Next couple of days is milder than normal from the Midwest to Mid-Atlantic up into the Northeast.

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

As expected that changes by day 5, still slightly mild air up over New England..

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

The GFS 8-16 day remains VERY COLD! Wow, just look at what’s dropping into the Northern Plains, now that promises to be a significant period of late February cold. Perhaps the coldest end tp a February over the Plains in 5, 10 perhaps 20 years if that happens.

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models

Are you tired of winter?

While February looks to stay cold throughout the remainder, I am optimistic that after a cold start to March for much of the US, spring will arrive midmonth onwards…

Follow my weather updates on Twitter @MarkVogan

 

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