We will see a 1-5 inch swath of snow tonight into Thursday morning from the central Appalachians to DC, Delmarva, Atlantic City up to New York City with local amounts of 6 inches in the mountains of WV, VA, MD and PA. However a lot of the attention remains on this weekend storm potential.
Let me just say that the storm which is currently over western Canada that is heading for the Midwest that was shown to you yesterday will deepen the trough yes and will bring down the arctic air too, yes. However the energy that would make the storm which dives out of British Columbia is wanting to ride the northwesterly flow and round the base of the developing trough.
As you can see in the below charts. The trough does appear to be too far east for that system to round the trough and then ride up the East Coast. In other words, everything is moving along too fast and by the time that system makes it into the Southeast and tries to head north, the arctic front has already made it offshore. Therefore, all this weekend will be for the entire Eastern Seaboard is plain old cold!
In saying that, some models have a snowstorm for the DC, Philly area before everything pushes out to sea.
So, the first chart shows tonight’s system heading out to sea. Note the system up over the Upper Midwest, that’s responsible for carving out the next trough and delivering the cold into the Plains. Timing is everything.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
Now let’s skip ahead to Friday morning!
Now according to this GFS run, high pressure builds into the East too fast with the trough and front pushing east to quick for the system to dive southeast and then manage to work north.
I am struggling to buy into any Northeast storm this weekend.
How’s the GFS temperature anomalies looking as we look ahead?
Next couple of days is milder than normal from the Midwest to Mid-Atlantic up into the Northeast.
As expected that changes by day 5, still slightly mild air up over New England..
The GFS 8-16 day remains VERY COLD! Wow, just look at what’s dropping into the Northern Plains, now that promises to be a significant period of late February cold. Perhaps the coldest end tp a February over the Plains in 5, 10 perhaps 20 years if that happens.
Are you tired of winter?
While February looks to stay cold throughout the remainder, I am optimistic that after a cold start to March for much of the US, spring will arrive midmonth onwards…
Follow my weather updates on Twitter @MarkVogan
[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]
Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!
[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
Sign in to read the full forecast…
Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial
Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]
Recent Comments