After dropping a good 8-12 inches of snow on parts of the Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma, the second strip of snow is coming for the Mid-Atlantic from the mountains of West Virginia to Atlantic City. Below is the GFS snow chart through Thursday morning.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
Notice how there’s a break with just a mere coating across Kentucky but there’s a pep up in precip once the system crosses the Appalachains and pulls in Gulf/Atlantic moisture. This course course is the biggest snow for DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia into Atlantic City. See the decent 3-6 inch swath and the band within of 6-9, I think the DC to AC corridor gets within that 3-6 inch band.
Here’s the pressure chart during Wednesday. The low tracks across the South and while tonight there’s a severe risk out with more flooding rains. The system exits off the Virginia coast Thursday morning. Also notice the 988 low up over Minnesota, this will bring a few additional inches to the Upper Midwest as it tracks east towards Quebec and eventually the ocean, this opens the door to arctic air dropping back down.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
That system is a problem to anything trying to get north this weekend as it will come up against a high building down from the north.
[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]
Here’s the pressure chart for Friday. See how the cold air drains south with building pressures across the Midwest and East as that low slides east.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
The ECMWF has not only a similar scenario with the exiting southern storm and the storm up over the Midwest but it too has no storm this weekend with a sea of high pressure blocking any channel for a storm up push into the Northeast.
So both GFS and ECMWF have lost the weekend system. This was a system which looked to be a big deal and now it looks like cold overwhelms the pattern this weekend with a big trough coming down. However, while looking more unlikely now, we still cannot rule out a low running the eastern flank of the trough up the East Coast. Models have went from another major snowstorm with 1-2ft of snow to nothing, it’s only Tuesday night and things can change again.
While the ECMWF is typically the most accurate model and it along with the GFS has lost the weekend scenario. Take a look at the Canadian model for Sunday.
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
Like I’ve said, there’s still plenty of time and changes are likely with these models.
Looking at temperatures down the road. I showed you in yesterday’s post the GFS 0-8 and 8-16 with a very cold back end 8 days.
The model continues to hold to this. It appears even colder than yesterday, wow!
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
As for that incredibly deep late weekend trough, the ECMWF continues to hold onto it too with the 540 line still getting all the way to central South Carolina!
Courtesy/Owned by WeatherBELL Models
The one significant difference to yesterday is the trough is narrower, less broad but still as deep. This will send some incredibly cold air deep into the Southeast Sunday into Monday that’s for sure.
Follow my weather updates on Twitter @MarkVogan
[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]
Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!
[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]
Sign in to read the full forecast…
Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial
Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]
Recent Comments