Many southern and central areas of the UK are dealing with yet another snow event and many northern areas will deal with nasty conditions later tonight, tomorrow and even into Tuesday. Be aware of very strong to gale-force winds blowing in off the North Sea which will bring a blizzard to parts of the North Pennines and even eastern parts. Dangerous driving conditions are a given tonight. A nasty rush hour is possible across much of northern England as well as southern, central and particularly eastern Scotland. The cold will hold through this week with lows down below -10C where skies clear but the question is, does this cold break by next weekend like some models are suggesting?

There are several things to consider when it comes to a warm-up.

You’ve got to remember that by later tomorrow, the bulk of the UK will have snow on the ground, now that’s no easy feat in a part of the world situated on the eastern side of an ocean with a warm current running up along the west coast where the typical upper flow comes in from. Mild winds are the dominated aspect to our weather with an active storm track. Keep in mind that this current pattern is the reverse of normality thanks to high-latitude blocking to our north and west, which brings continental cold air in from the east, blocking mild from coming in from the west. This very pattern was highlighted as a real possibility this winter way back.

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Now, with time, as the snow cover expands and the cold continues to feed in from the east across the UK, this is not a pattern I believe that will simply turn around and end right away. There is a ‘build-up’ of cold that can stop mild air from re-establishing itself . The low-level cold becomes harder and harder to shift as the snow keeps the lower atmosphere cold and often modelling does not see how much low level cold air there is, so while I do expect a recovery by the end of January and first few days of February, I think it may be slower to come than what models are suggesting and there will likely be a return to colder times again not long after the warm-up begins.

If you go back and look at my forecast, you’ll notice that I say, once the colder pattern develops, milder air will interupt the cold but the dominant aspect overall will be that of cold like we saw during the winter of 2009-10 where we saw a sharp turn to cold between December 15-20th which lasted through the first 10 days of January. There was a break late January before a return to cold and lots of snow in February. March too had lots of winter and I do think there will be a recovery but a return to cold this February which could make for the coldest month of all this winter.

Many underestimate what it takes for this pattern to take place in our part of the world but when the right things are in place, it’s possible and that is what i’ve always alluded to this winter. The thing is that while I forecasted a winter which had potential to bring further snow and cold, unlike last year, that is a dangerous call but I honestly believed that given what I was seeing, globally, there was a good chance. I still beat myself up about the bust of last year and so in order to protect myself, I could have easily went for a 50/50 chance, if not a warm winter, just to play it safe and keep a decent reputation as a long range forecaster.

However, I didn’t and I did state throughout autumn the WHY behind my forecast and I gave you backing and interestingly enough, this pattern has happened again and given what I am seeing, it may very well repeat itself through a good chunk of February

Below is the latest CFSv2 which looks through February and even into March. There is no deneying the coming mild but this model holds with my ideas of colder weather returning in repeated fashion through the next 45 days. Warmth will interupt but cold SHOULD follow each time. The next cold shot comes in a modest fashion but a major league cold outbreak may come late February into early March.

Next 5 days, ouch!

Day 5-10, note the cold backs off. I agree with this but exactly when, remains open to question. My guess is mid-next week or right around Jan 31-Feb 1.

Day 10-15, quite the warm-up right? Many will likely jump on this and declare winter over, especially those who wrote off this winter before it began!

Day 15-20,note the date, if this holds true, the coming warmth doesn’t last long at all. Here comes the next cold shot, though this may not last all that long before another warmup follows but the real deal may comes right at the end of February into March!

Day 20-25

Check out this below for day 40-45!

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