The snow has began in earnest over across the Mid-South this morning and there has already been reports of 2-3″ accumulations across southern and central Mississippi up through central Alabama and this is just the beginning.

As the system track from Alabama to coastal N. Carolina, the cold will get pulled down and this is allowing the snow to break out all the way to near the Gulf Coast of Mississippi. Warm, humid air is being driven north over the Carolinas into Virginia and ahead of the system and this is producing heavy rains. As the air warms, the humid air should trigger thunderstorms and these, will increase snowfall rates on the backside of the front over eastern TN, western N and S Carolina and W. Virginia.

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Here’s the GFS pressure chart for later today.

Early Friday.

All in all, as the cold air continues to get pulled down from the northwest into the area of precipitation, the northern side should turn to snow later today from Alabama up through eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina and much of Virginia and through tomorrow morning, the snowfall will spread across more of North Carolina as colder air takes hold.

Here’s the latest snow forecast off weather.com

Here’s what the GFS predicts. Note the large amounts across much of Virginia, the Delmarva, northern North Carolina, western and central South Carolina and the covering over South Jersey.

While Richmond should get a good 6-inch snowstorm out of this, Washington DC is a tough call as it sits right on the boundary. It really could go either way. Little or no snow or 2-4 inches.

This system will move fast and so it will be off the map by later tomorrow, setting the stage for a cold start to Saturday as a cold high builds down on the backside of the low.

Here’s the pressure chart for Saturday morning.

By Monday, a storm system will have slid east across Canada and it’s as this system takes a run at eastern Canada that ARCTIC air begins to drop south over the Midwest and East as the deepest trough of the season gets carved out.. Watch out for the coldest weather of the season.

Here’s the GFS pressure chart for late Sunday night.

This cold shot could hold daytime highs in the 20s from Boston down to Washington Monday through Wednesday with lows dropping into the 10s with one night perhaps nearing 10.

This arctic wave is one of 3 over the next 3 weeks and while a temperature recovery comes later next week, the second and third wave are likely to be even colder.

Here’s the latest CFSv2.

Here’s the cold Jan 19-24

Then comes the pull pack with East Coast ridging between Jan 24-29.

Then comes a major arctic blast for the Plains Jan 29-Feb 3

Here’s the period from Feb 8-13. Wow!

With each wave of cold, I expect a system to ridge up the eastern flank of the trough and so snow cover should re-establish itself too.

More tomorrow.

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