While the next 7-10 days will not be particularly wintry for the UK and Ireland, it’s what may follow which may be worth paying attention to. I strongly believe that cold will gain more and more ground over the next 2 weeks starting in the east and should work west. The mean UK ridge will hold firm over the next 3-5 days but should start to gradually weaken later next week. The trough over the east will deepen and colder air will fill it. It’s as the wavelength grows that we will see the UK ridge break, retreat south and west as the +AO flips back to -.

As I’ve said in recent posts, there is a very significant stratospheric warming event now underway over top of the pole and this will completely destroy the vortex currently over the pole. As major warming takes place at stratospheric level, so the entire reservoir of arctic air will get drained south into the mid-latitudes. If you live in Europe or North America, winter is coming back and may come back in a major way.

I unfortunately cannot say for sure whether the UK and Ireland will see this very cold weather but what I will say is, if we escape, then we would be very lucky or unlucky, whatever way you want to look at it.

Sorry for the short post, been up for nearly 24 hours and will be catching a flight to the US first thing in the morning. Stay tuned as I will continue posting write-ups and videos over there.

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