My dear American subscriber, while you may have been mild so far this month, you have a heck of a 3-week period of winter coming up which should wipe out those warm memories and fears of a winter 2011-12 repeat.

There is the perfect setup both over the continent and globally which supports an impressive cold period from now through at least January 10.

While the core of the planet’s coldest air mass has broken, the focus turns to North America and ultimately the US where we could see days with temperatures 30 to near 50F below normal over parts of the Plains, Midwest with 5-day departures of 15 to 20F below normal during the first part of January, not dissimilar to what we just witnessed over parts of Russia and Kazakhstan. For folks over the heart of Asia, the cold is finally easing with normality returning.

The fact that Asia is warming, the pool of coldest air is likely to head to another part of the hemisphere and with favourable indexes and northern blocking, so the USA looks to be the primary candidate for this cold.

Stage Is Now Being Set, 2 More Snowstorms Before New Year, 55-60% Snowcover By Then!

We have seen snowstorm No 1 raise national snowcover from 33 to 44% and next week will see another which lays down a blanket of white as far south as Oklahoma, perhaps North Texas and it may also whiten Arkansas as well as northern Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee all the way to Maine. Yet another system follows on it’s heels and while all this is going on, the arctic air continues to feed south, growing in coverage and intensifying all the while. An active Pacific storm track will get pushed south as arctic air gains more ground, so the snowcover not only becomes extensive but will reach pretty far south too. All this acts like a runway for arctic air to run across.

Finally the PNA is going positive, this promotes a ridge up the West Coast while there is a blocking high over Hudson Bay, both features funnel arctic air south into the Lower 48 and as the coverage grows, perhaps to 55-60% by New Year, so the arctic air modifies less and gets further and further south.

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Latest model output shows a cold and stormy next 8 days, the following 8 days will be quite a bit colder and this takes us into the first week of January.

While some morning’s even next week may dawn frigid all the way to North Texas, the first week of January may see the coldest air in several years drop south and with the ridge near Alaska and the other over Hudson Bay seen to join, this frigid spell may be a lockdown for a few weeks.

I was going to say that I am very envious, especially with what I am seeing for here in the UK over the next 16 days, however I will in fact be vacationing in New Jersey for 2 weeks starting January 4th so I may be very lucky to experience some of this snowy and cold pattern for myself. I most certainly would be surprised to fly into Newark on January 4th and not see snow on the ground.

Yes, it was warm and warmer than I thought during the first 18 days of the month but as warm as it may have been, you may find the next 20 days produces far greater departures from normal on the cold side from the warm side we’ve just seen. Does that make sense?

I shall have more tomorrow, looking at snow potential next week across thw South and Northeast! Stay tuned.

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