Well it appears the warming trend is coming for the Northeast after a chilly past few days. The trough lifts out of eastern North America as Leslie now exits. Models continue to show a more impressive trough drop out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest, Lakes and Midwest around the 20th which could push a frost, even a freeze deep into the Mid-Mississippi, Ohio Valley.
Check out the latest ECMWF run.
Here comes the warmer air but notice the new storm system and trough already trying to dig in the Dakotas. It was in the 100s here like 2 days ago. The pattern is becoming much more fluid with short lived warm spells followed uickly by longer and increasingly stronger cool spells which wavelengths are continuing to grow.
Here’s for this coming Saturday, note the upper low is spinning over the Northeast, so that warmth doesn’t hold for any period of time yet the heat once again tries to work back in.
What I’m noticing is that the rebounding heat which pushes right back to where it just left (Dakotas), still wants to have summer intensity. In other words, it’s darn hot with mid to upper 90s rather than more typical ‘hot conditions for mid-Sept of mid or upper 80s) This shows that the heat which was built up all summer could be slow to truely break and so this may try to fight on into October. BUT, these troughs are becoming stronger, covering more ground and in fact, their intensity, frequency and covering is arguably earlier than you would expect. There is a clear atmospheric fight going on.
It’s what the charts are showing for around Sept 20 which is eye-catching and the amount of cold far stronger than typical for this early which could beg the question that a darn cold period (aginst the averages) could be looming for the end of the month into early October. The surge of chill coming down later next week into the Great Lakes, even parts of the Midwest could bring some surprise snows.
Once the weekend upper low kicks off the coast, you can see the trough and it’s cold air starting to dive down the spine of Canada.
Here’s the ECMWF for Sept 20.
The common trend I’m beginning to see here is that heat is lingering in the West and with each trough dropping into the central and eastern US which migrates east is followed by a surge of warmth which tends to want to head up into the Northern Plains but if your paying attention, these troughs are coming down with increasingly cooler and cooler air and I personally think we need to watch the trough coming AFTER next week’s, perhaps sometime around the 25th on. That’s a trough which could come and stay, given, their holding longer each new one which drops down.
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