8pm ET ISAAC UPDATE: Tropical Storm Issac Strengthens, Watches Issued For Florida (Includes Video!)

Courtesy of NOAA

Since the last time I looked at Isaac earlier today it remained a weak and rather disorganised system with a large envelope of energy but as of this evening, that energy is beginning toshow signs of consolidating and we knew that once this occured then, look out! Maximum sustained winds are up to 65 mph now and this will cause more issues for Hispaniola as well as the torrential rains which could dump locally 18 inches over upslope areas.

As you can see from the latest official track forecast that southern Hispaniola will likely see a landfall of perhaps a 70 mph storm, then it’s off to eastern Cuba with a landfall there by tomorrow afternoon. While gusty winds are going to tear down some tree limbs, cut power and do minor damage, the rainfall is the greatest concern with flooding and perhaps minor surge inevatable.

Map courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

It looks likely that Isaac will spend the best part of a day over Cuba before remerging out into the Florida Straits sometime Sunday afternoon and what will be very interesting to see is what state the system remerges over the water in after the interaction with a rugged body of land. What’s also interesting is that if you take a look at the below spray map of all the models, the consenses is now for a Gulf system with a miss in the connection in the trough early on which would have taken him up the East Coast. Some of these models also appear to have this only clipping the eastern edge of Cuba and hugging the north shore of Cuba, that may allow a stronger system over the FL Straits and therefore a stronger system crossing the Keys.

The amount of time spent over land will be crucial to later down the road as quite often, it’s the impact these large and rugged islands have which can make all the difference to how much it regains intensity and how strong it becomes before and at landfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast. Obviously the less time Isaac spends over Cuba, the quicker it will reintensify and weaken in the first place as the inner core should be much less disrupted.

Notice with the forecast track above that Isaac isn’t expected to take long before impacting the Florida Keys after returning to the warm waters of the Straits. That means we could see impact as early as later tomorrow over South Florida and so really if you live in this region, you should have your plans in gear and organised now or by noon tomorrow at the latest.

Latest model spray shows a Gulf system (Courtesy of WeatherBELL Models)

A landfall over the Keys looks  likely and the question is, at what strength will it be by Sunday evening, again that boild down to Cuba. Since the SST’s are near or at 90F and the loop current flow through here between Florida and Cuba becoming the Gulf Stream, rapid intensification is on the table.

If you also notice in the above chart from the NHC that by Monday afternoon Isaac is expected to be well into the eastern Gulf and well north of the Keys with the New Orleans to Appalachicola, FL stretch firmly it’s his sights. I strongly believe that Isaac by later Monday into Tuesday could be on it’s way to MAJOR, Category 3 status with no dry air, little to no shear and mid-80 waters for a solid 48 hours will allow ample chance for real intensification if it doesn’t achieve that early after leaving Cuba.

Personally the region outlined along the Gulf Coast I believe must start to get plans in order and act NOW not in a few days. Be ready for the potential landfall of a major hurricane sometime during Wednesday. If the track was to track even further west and tapping the super warm influences of the loop current spiralling around the central Gulf, then a Category 4 or 5 is possible.

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