5.30am ET ISAAC UPDATE: Models Converge West On Stronger Gulf of Mexico Hurricane (Includes Video!)

Well in many ways little has changed in the past 24 to 48 hours as Isaac continues to remain a weak storm, However that’s only half the story because in a sense you cannot go by the fact that it’s only a 40 mph minimal storm due to the fact it harnesses a lot of energy across a vast area. It’s a very large envelope and what we need to see happen is all this energy bundling with the multiple lows spinning around the circulation coming together and forming one. Once this large area of energy consolidates then it’s likely Isaac will become a strong and well organised system fast, especially if the dry air and shear can be shaken off because there is so much high heat content in the waters beneath.

As explained in the previous post. It’s Haiti and the Dom Rep most at risk right now and with winds not that strong, the rains are the primary threat, however.. this could does have potential in becoming a hurricane before a possible landfall on the south coast of Haiti and as well as the rain, wind and wave action should be considered a risk too.

Here’s a video of Isaac’s outer bands coming ashore on Puerto Rico.

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Track uncertainties continue despite models taking this into Gulf

Once it impacts Hispaniola it’s Cuba next in line. Looks like eastern Cuba but really all of Cuba is at risk from a weak hurricane packing torrential rains and 75-80 mph winds. The big complicating factor is where the new or evolving centre will emerge, does it form further north or south. That’s important because it could make all the difference in track and the difference between the system having less time over land and over those very warm waters, that could mean a Cat 2 striking S Florida or the Keys or if it remained over land longer, the wind could be knocked out of it when remerging over the water. Often hurricanes which spend perhaps 12-24 hours over these rugged islands, never really get their act back, so there is so much on the table here.

Concerns about another Katrina in the central Gulf next week

The general model consenses has been continuing to trend over the past 24 hours, taking the system WEST of Florida and that is not good news. In fact the latest run of the ECMWF has a strong hurricane coming ashore near the Beaumont-Lake Charles area mid next week. If that path was to head in that direction, crossing the warm SST’s and loop current with endless fuel for intensification then you could have another Katrina-like storm in the central Gulf. That folks is a real possibility and cannot be ruled out unfortunately.

Official NHC Forecast Track (Graphic courtesy of TWC)

Of course Florida is very much on under threat and I urge ALL residents and visitors to stay alert and dig out their prepardness plans NOW not this weekend and get organised. Whatever this thing does, whether it goes east, west or makes a direct landfall, it’s got potential to take lives and damage property.

I hold true to my ideas from days ago that the area from New Orleans to Appalachicola, FL must pay close attention to this as I belive there is a very real threat for this area of the northern Gulf coast through the mid part of next week..

Below is last night’s video. I shall have a new in a few hours. Check back.

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