I’m sure every one of us is ready for a taste of summer once again and yes, it’s coming though it’s duration will be brief in the North while from Sunday through next Wednesday, the Midlands down to Kent should enjoy mid to upper 20s for highs.
Does this constitute a heatwave? No, not even by our standards though given what we’ve endured so far, this will probably feel much more than it actually is.
I must stress though, that this is not a sign of a dramatic change as we approach August. This weekend into the early and mid part of next week will support classic July warmth. Though not written in stone yet, a trough looks to return to the ‘majority of the UK’ mid next week, the far South may hold onto the warmer air. All in all, over the next 5 days, we could see a 30C one or two afternoons around Greater London or Kent.
Trough sinks south over UK through early and mid next week but ridging may return later in the week
It’s a little too difficult to say for sure but the models are hinting at a possible resurge of high pressure late next week with the boundary which will slowly work south over the UK during the first part of next week perhaps pushing back north to end next week. Right now, the model has the trough more over the UK than to the east and so a cooler NW flow looks more likely than warm SW but the trough is fluid, relatively weak compared to recent troughs and so if the ridge is stronger then the warmth may push back into the UK by Thursday or Friday.
The second half of this summer in my opinion will see less rain but it’s unlikely we’re going to see any real sustained warmth though that can’t be ruled out by late August or September. The frequency in warm surges will increase from now through September but we’re always going to be in an active pattern but thankfully I don’t see the big rains we have seen over the past few months.
NAO remains negative. Until it returns to positive, no sustained warm spell is in sight
As you can see from the below ensemble run for the NAO, the model continues to hint at a recovery to neutral but it’s been saying this for weeks now. At this time, it remains firmly in the negative and I think it will remain there well into the first part of August. It’s current state supports a continuation in the unsettled weather. I do feel confident that the big rains in such persistent fashion is done but that doesn’t mean we can’t get more heavy rains. We’re going to see potentially heavy rain as soon as Sunday into Monday across Scotland but watch as warmth trys to become involved again following this, that’s my point, warmth will try to return more frequently. This overall signal supports a wet pattern but warmer second half to this summer. It just won’t be as as wet! The breaking down of the strong mean trough which has been anchored directly over the UK will allow all that warmth over the Atlantic to our west and south to advance our way with the help of storm systems.
In saying all this, if we happen to see the NAO push into positive sometime in August, then I think we would stand a better chance at some sustained warmth further down the road.
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