>My February Forecast has been accurate in the big picture

>You and others may be thinking, my wife included, that after a very accurate forecast for the first half of winter, February hasn’t been quite so accurate…

Well I was stating to my wife that blizzard conditions yet again plaque the northern half of Scotland tonight. Snow was indeed hitting my truck windscreen this morning between Happendon and Abington along the M74. I did also see snowflakes fly in Hamilton also, my point is that my ideas for this month was going by the “bigger picture” and not just by a) looking out my window b) Watching the TV forecasts which of course only give you a 1-3 day brief forecast and 3) a guess and basing ideas on what’s already happened that we were in for a cold February and may have been looking at a similar cold spell to what we witnessed earlier this winter.

So far, more or less everyone in the UK is running below normal. We have seen accummulating snow at the beginning of the month as expected and the threat appears to be lingering all the time for snow. Snow ALL WINTER has never been far away and even during the so-called thaw, we have witnessed on-off snows throughout Britain and despite mild nights, the cold nights persist way way more than a typical year.

If it were down to a pure guess, that February would be cold simply because late December through early January and then the closing days of January proved cold and snowy, well going by rcent years, that guess would have proved faital because more often than not, a brief cold and snowy spell was soon wiped out by a vast push of mild, unsettled weather off the Atlantic that more often than not locked down the pattern for weeks.

Much of the Northern Hemisphere has been way too cold and snowy and the persistent negative NAO and AO proved to suggest cold would never be far away from us. Whenever we here in the central belt were nice and by (certainly by day) parts of England or indeed Highland Scotland was seeing cold and snow.

I’ve never seen a winter were the treat of frost, ice and snow has been so unrelentless. Yes, we’ve seen mild days lately but remember, AVERAGE HIGHS NOW FOR GLASGOW IS UP TO 45 DEGREES, AVERAGE LOWS 35 DEGREES. Tonight marks the 11th night out of the first 16 nights of the month, below freezing and what’s interesting is we still have the second half of the month to go. Another thing here worth noting is that today we had snow flakes flying even at lower levels, yesterday sleet was falling and yet we have seen highs top near 50 degrees! The air is wanting to warm with the time of year but snows also want to get in… It’s been a constant fight this year.

Below freezing nights are winning over above normal daytime highs and the snow flakes continue to want to fly!

What I do see is many more nights colder than normal and days that may drop below normal for the second half of the month. I do expect more snow even here at the lower elevations.

Across areas such as Granton On Spey, Carrbridge, Dulnain Bridge and other communities in the Highlands may ask, what thaw? They’ve seen snowcovered ground since December 17th, what a year those folks are having.

Long and short of it, whilst the Highlands have seen almost non-stop Arctic air off the continent which has met Atlantic air flowing out of the southwest and breaking out persistent snow showers, many areas across England have also seen snows and well below normal temperatures. Despite stepping out here, my forecast has been true with both areas to our south and north seeing snow and cold weather on an unusually regular bases.

Europe is still abnormally cold and snow covered and that was one of the many factors which brought me to the idea that February would mark the third straight month colder than normal for us here in Scotland. That is proving true. What I will say is this, don’t jump too quick on saying I was overhyping the idea of yet another very cold period in February. We’re only at Feb 16th and I do see an end to this month similar to how it begun. If you forget how the month did begin, the first few days of the month brought 2-3 inch snows to the Glasgow area and nights of severe frost with lows plunging to the low 20s…

It ain’t over till it’s over and it certainly will be a winter to be remembered but I truely believe this winter is a mere wakeup call to worse in the years ahead, those years may not be too far away either!

We also have March, another month that can bring nasty winter weather and I do see snow and cold next month also but cold will become weaker and eventually less frequent, probably by the mid-portion of next month, our snow chances certainly for this region of the UK may be somewhat done for another year. As for the Highlands, well, they may see their snows which first arrived on December 17, last till April!

Could we still see the biggest snowfall of this season yet for the Glasgow, Edinburgh corridor?

Yes, it is still possible, remembering that Glasgow was hit with nearly a foot of snow in March a few years ago, though it melted nearly as fast as it arrived as there was no cold air around afterwards, this year might see some late season brutal cold which follows a fresh snowcover!

Thanks for reading.
-Mark