Seasonal Forecasts
The early June low has been mentioned here for days now and the models continue to show an unusually deep system for the time of year. In fact the latest GFS sends pressure into an autumnal 968mb. A pressure you don’t typically get during the summer months. This may be in part response to abnormally […]
Oklahoma City, then Houston and now Dallas falls victim to an overnight deluge which forces an emergency and multiple major road closures. As much as 3-6 inches of rain fell over the Metroplex and surrounding area between midnight and 6-7am this morning. The latest in a series of flash flood events this month and part of […]
We all know about the series of Atlantic lows that will close May/open June on a very wet, windy and cold note but a significant shift in Europe’s upper air pattern is coming. For details on the weekend and early next week weather, be sure to watch today’s video. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] A fair amount of […]
The US pattern is such that heights are building as we head into summer’s first month but heights are lowering underneath across Mexico, the Gulf and Caribbean. That bares watching and the modelling are even hinting at tropical mischief. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] ECMWF appears to have something drifting north over Cuba towards South Florida day 7-10. GFS sees […]
Under the blanket of heavy rain yesterday, it felt more like March with temps even at 3pm stuck at just 6-8C over many parts of Scotland. You could even see your breath in the cold rain. That shouldn’t be the case at this time of year nor should there be mention of snow and that’s […]
It may seen like a long time coming but summer weather appears to be on the horizon for the UK, Ireland and western Europe but not before a cool, unsettled end to spring and beginning of summer. In fact the latest run of the GFS has thrown up a rather impressive and unusual early June […]
May 2015 will be long remembered as the month that busted the Texas drought with parts of the Plains approaching 30 inches in 30 days. For some, as much as 12 inches within 24 hours causing devastating flash flooding. 1-day rainfall over Texas! Metro Houston is the latest culprit with 10-11 inches falling overnight. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] […]
Computer models continue to show the deepening of a low coming off Greenland this weekend that’s expected to present an unseasonably cool, wet and windy open to June. Here’s the morning of June 1 off the latest run of the GFS. Afternoon of June 1 [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] In this morning’s video I show the GFS example of […]
As we approach June the upper air pattern is showing signs of a shift into a more summer-like state. The persistent, anomalous upper trough/cold pool that’s hung over California and the Southwest for much of May appears to be shifting east into the saturated Southern Plains as feedback of wet ground and atmosphere begin to kick […]
In today’s video I show the 1972 example of similar (not exact by any means) SSTA’s with the horseshoe of cold in the Atlantic vs modestly warm Pacific with an El Nino coming on. Out of the last 30+ years, it appears 1972 is closest but the Pacific is very warm and the El Nino […]
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