The early June low has been mentioned here for days now and the models continue to show an unusually deep system for the time of year. In fact the latest GFS sends pressure into an autumnal 968mb. A pressure you don’t typically get during the summer months. This may be in part response to abnormally cold water over warm and early summer level warmth and humidity lifting north over water that’s of a late winter temp. The cross Atlantic jet stream is unusually strong and so all the ingredients are coming together for an unusual early summer storm.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Monday night into Tuesday, while very wet, will be particularly windy, again for the time of year.

The model suggests wind gusts of 65 knots over NW Scotland.

The GFS suggests a winter strength 150 knot jet stream.

This thing speedily lifts up into Scandinavia with sharp height rises in it’s wake.

Check out the difference between 96 and 120 hours. All of a sudden there’s a near 1030 high over the Netherlands.

By 144 or the end of next week, we’ve a 1032 high draped from Scotland to Denmark, an approaching low SW of England and we’re drawing warm, continental air in from the SE.

Exactly how warm we get very much remains to be seen. Bare in mind, this is one model and one run. The exact solution is unknown and there will be shifts in track and strength of lows/highs.

It’s early days but GFS suggests low 30s (C) over Belg/Neth, upper 20s for S Eng, mid 20s for Scot NEXT SATURDAY!

Be sure to check out this morning’s video for the discussion.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]