It may seen like a long time coming but summer weather appears to be on the horizon for the UK, Ireland and western Europe but not before a cool, unsettled end to spring and beginning of summer. In fact the latest run of the GFS has thrown up a rather impressive and unusual early June storm system that is scheduled (according to latest run) to cross the UK/Ireland early/mid next week.

Today, Glasgow may have a tough time scraping 10C but 1,000 miles to the east in Moscow and it’s approaching 30C.

By mid month, the UK may be warmer than European Russia with the opposite height field.

GFS surface through this weekend into next week looks like this.

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While not as deep, the ECMWF also sees an unseasonably strong low over the UK next Tuesday.

Modelling tends to be somewhat overdone with low pressure depth, especially into the summer months but it will be interesting to see how deep this thing is next week. Perhaps a summer rain/gale system to open summer 2015?

Big Pattern Flip Coming…

The longer range in most of the models show a complete flip in the upper pattern between day 0-5 and 10-15 with ridge building towards June 6 over the UK.

I’m writing this from a cold, rainy Tyndrum where the dash is reading just 7C and it’s 3pm and just days from June!

Be sure to watch today’s video for the latest discussion.

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