As we approach June the upper air pattern is showing signs of a shift into a more summer-like state. The persistent, anomalous upper trough/cold pool that’s hung over California and the Southwest for much of May appears to be shifting east into the saturated Southern Plains as feedback of wet ground and atmosphere begin to kick in.

This will allow heights to build over the typically arid Southwest, naturally forcing typical summer heat to build into the 90s/100s.

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The other dry area where heat is building this week, is the East Coast. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic may approach 100 by mid week.

There’s cross model agreement that a banana shape high develops from California to the Mid-Atlantic with a void setting up over the Southern Plains. Where wet, the atmosphere will continue to rain and where dry, heat builds.

Another thing worth watching in this pattern will be the widespread height falls extending from the east Pacific across Mexico and into the Caribbean. Keep in mind the level of warmth in the Gulf and with lower than normal atmospheric pressure, warm, moisture rich air is encouraged to rise. All it takes is some wave or thunderstorm cluster to drift south out of the Southern US and spin up.

GFS operational

GFS ensemble

EPS Control

GFS may be sniffing at something between day 10-15 off the South Atlantic coast. It’s also seeing major rains down in the Caribbean.

QPF rainfall across the Caribbean over the next 10 days. 2ft possible over Hispaniola.

See today’s video for the discussion.

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