Computer models continue to show the deepening of a low coming off Greenland this weekend that’s expected to present an unseasonably cool, wet and windy open to June.

Here’s the morning of June 1 off the latest run of the GFS.

Afternoon of June 1

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In this morning’s video I show the GFS example of the upcoming 7 day period and like in yesterday’s write-up I shall show you the ECMWF version here. Both show a cool, unsettled end to May and open to June though the current runs of the ECMWF are somewhat cooler and more unsettled with low pressure over the UK rather than to the north.

Interestingly the BBC has it settling down with high pressure building overhead as June opens. I have yet to see the GFS and ECMWF going to that solution.

I won’t deny that as we progress through next week, I recon we find ourselves back in a north-south split once again where it’s warmer and drier the further south you go over the UK with continued cool and at times wet and windy with the passing of fronts associated with lows up near Iceland. The high-low fight is likely to be a factor throughout this summer.

The EPS control shows a WNW flow through the next 10 days and then a hint at a stronger ridge pattern as we head for June 10. That coincides with my overall thinking.

In tomorrow’s post I shall look at the possible return of ridging towards June 10. Till then, be sure to watch today’s video for the discussion.

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