Tropical
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is quiet, NHC has issued its quietest hurricane forecast ever with a 90% chance of a below normal season. The cooler-than normal water through the tropical Atlantic is a small part of the reason. The strongest El Nino since 1997 is one of two major factors, the other is the contrast in warm […]
The very system which has dropped 10-30 inches of rain around the Tampa Bay area in the last 3-5 days is now showing signs of life as it skirts the Carolina coast. The visible and infrared satellite view this evening suggests the warm coastal waters and a reduction in mid and high level wind shear is having influence, […]
The tropical Pacific continues to cook with the latest system, Dolores off Mexico’s west coast expected to become a yet another major storm. Luckily for Mexico, it looks to have indirect impacts. Meanwhile, we’ve recently had a surprise pop over the Gulf stream off the East Coast US, Tropical Storm Claudette has formed and thankfully for […]
The super strong MJO crossing the Pacific Ocean has the ‘conga line’ of topical trouble steaming westward full throttle. The first two systems threaten China with the second (Chan hom) potentially a major hit near Shanghai. The powerful MJO is likely down to the extremely warm waters covering a large part of the Pacific at the moment. The […]
As we head into the heart of July and indeed this summer season I can see some changes taking place. A cooler, wetter pattern beginning to show in the Southeast where it got pretty hot and dry last month. The big ridge up in the Pacific Northwest and even Southwest for that matter looks to be […]
The MJO is at record levels, likely in response to the strengthening El Nino. With a strong phase 6 into 7 episode, the western Pacific basin is lighting up with tropical activity once again as expected putting Japan and adjacent coastal nations on the watch while the Atlantic is under a record strong and persistent high pressure zone, hence […]
Since yesterday’s post, NHC has upped the chance of 91L to 80% as it continues to slowly organise over the warm Gulf of Mexico. It’s likely to become Tropical Storm Bill and the seasons 2nd named storm prior to landfall sometime overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. It’s biggest threat remains flash flooding. Not just Texas! [s2If […]
After a record wet May, the Houston NWS office received an impressive 6.71 inches of rain yesterday. That’s the biggest 24-hour rainfall total in over 5 years and there could be even worse to follow as 91L gathers to the south. The MJO pulse is crossing from east Pacific into the Gulf, hence the increase in convection around the […]
The past 20 days has seen the eastward progression of the MJO across the Pacific with a ramp up in tropical cyclones initially over the western basin and in the last week, the eastern basin. The abnormal warmth in the east has aided the rapid formation and intensification of both Andres and Blanca. The Gulf will be the place to […]
As we well know, May have been rather wet and therefore cool over the Plains but models show the cool/wet area expanding eastwards in June. Soggy May’s in strengthening El Nino years often are a precursor to a cool, damp summer overall and we’re seeing that trend as we head into summer’s opening month with only regional […]
Recent Comments