The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is quiet, NHC has issued its quietest hurricane forecast ever with a 90% chance of a below normal season.
The cooler-than normal water through the tropical Atlantic is a small part of the reason.
The strongest El Nino since 1997 is one of two major factors, the other is the contrast in warm PDO vs cold AMO.
TOP IMAGE CREDIT: NASA
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Credit: Weatherbell
This has led to an abnormally strong mid-Atlantic upper ridge which in turns drives a stronger easterly trade wind underneath. This supresses upward motion and shear apart anything trying to pop. Shear has been ‘off-the-scale’ strong through the Caribbean Sea in June and July.
Stronger than normal easterlies within the Caribbean has in fact been strongest since records began in 1979. Much stronger than normal high pressure and easterlies have drove a much deeper choking plume of Saharan dust through the tropical atmosphere, frequently affecting the Caribbean Islands (helping maintain and worsen the drought by supressing typical daily convective thunderstorm development), Florida and at times Texas.
NASA
Check out this low heading for Barbados, it’s surrounded by a thick layer of Saharan dust. Being choked from all sides.
June-July shear in the Caribbean Sea has been ‘unprecedented’ states Eric Blake of NHC.
Check out this upper chart from back on July 30, 80kts through the Caribbean at a time when shear nears minimum, this may have been a record!
Cool water in the Atlantic vs warm water in the Pacific, record strong shear, record high pressure and high volume of Saharan dust has led to the NHC forecasting a potentially record low hurricane season in 2015.
Despite this potentially record quiet season, it only takes one and 1992 is a textbook example of this. The first storm of 92 formed in MID-AUGUST and his name was Andrew! Also in an El Nino year.
See today’s video for more.
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