The tropical Pacific continues to cook with the latest system, Dolores off Mexico’s west coast expected to become a yet another major storm. Luckily for Mexico, it looks to have indirect impacts.

Meanwhile, we’ve recently had a surprise pop over the Gulf stream off the East Coast US, Tropical Storm Claudette has formed and thankfully for US concerns, she poses no threat but may have wind, rain and surf impacts to Newfoundland by this weekend.

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This system has formed over an area of abnormally warm water well east of New York heading NNE.

Over the next 7-10 days, the US pattern remains highly transient with no real build up of heat. A series of fronts dropping over the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will bring in bands of rain and thunderstorms up and down the Eastern Seaboard with spells of warm sunshine in between.

As for the Western US, it appears moisture begins to progress north from Mexico into the Four Corners and Great Basin. A potential start to this year’s monsoon season. This will help temper high heat and may make July 2015 a little below normal given the cool first half to this month.

The ECMWF surface shows the spells of rain and storminess in the East and the blossoming of tropical moisture from Mexico up into the Southwest US.

10 day rain totals off the QPF. Note the plume of moisture streaming into Arizona and the continued heavy rains over the Heartland where the ground’s already saturated.

Dew points remain high over the wet Heartland but are on the increase over the Southwest too.

The video will be available later! Stay tuned.

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