The jet stream doesn’t typically warrant much mention during the warm season as it’s a weaker feature that is often or should be to our north.

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However this week the transatlantic jet strengthens and buckles and by doing so, it develops an usually deep little low for mid July by late week. On a positive note, it will also trigger another brief warm surge for the UK but unfortunately, as is too often the case this year, that warmth is solely confined to the South. The upper 20-degree warmth will be abruptly replaced by wet and windy conditions later Thursday into Friday.

Check out the below GFS jet stream charts and see how it not only intensifies but takes a wild southward dip out over the Atlantic. This forces cyclogenesis and pressure falls as the air is forced into a relatively tight space but this southward jet helps draw African air north ahead of it.

GFS surface

It should get close to 30C somewhere in Southern England Thursday will Paris may return to the mid, possibly upper 30s once again.

Once again, the bulk of the British Isles and indeed Ireland misses out.

This is mirroring beautifully with my summer forecast.

Then here comes that autumn-like low. Expect an increasingly wet and windy late Thursday. Looks quite windy for all through the first half of Friday with 20-35 mph gusts widely, possibly 50-60 mph on exposed coasts and high ground.

GFS 10 metre wind gusts. May be an unusually choppy mid July crossing for travelling between Ireland and the UK as well as Aberdeen and Shetland.

Looks like we’re in a cool, showery northwest flow through the weekend in the wake of Friday’s low with the main rain band spreading SE over the continental mainland.

As for next week, well it’s looking like another mixed bag with further spells of wind and rain to come.

Be sure to watch this morning’s video for the discussion of the above.

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