The very system which has dropped 10-30 inches of rain around the Tampa Bay area in the last 3-5 days is now showing signs of life as it skirts the Carolina coast.

The visible and infrared satellite view this evening suggests the warm coastal waters and a reduction in mid and high level wind shear is having influence, increasing deep symmetrical convection.

This is likely to weaken as it heads out to sea without causing issue further up the coast. Thank a SE bound cold front which not only forces it out but also increases the shear.

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Both GFS and ECMWF take it out.

As for Guillermo in the central Pacific, while waters are plenty warm beneath and out ahead, shear is this system’s biggest enemy and it’s winning. A once mature hurricane, it looks like this system will limp as a mere depression well north of the Hawaiian Islands tomorrow.

As for the Eastern US, dry ground is playing a big role in how temperatures are going this summer. It seems the Appalachians are acting as a divide between cool over wet across the Lower Midwest, Ohio Valley while warm over dry to the east.

Check out the sharp difference in the number of 90s west vs east of the mountains.

It’s another hot day for the Mid-Atlantic with DC just surpassing it’s annual average number of 90 degree days. Today being 37 and the 12th straight.

Cooling trend is now kicking in as the latest cold front generates flooding rains and local severe weather over the Mid-Atlantic.

See today’s video for the discussion.

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Tags: hurricane season, hurricanes