The super strong MJO crossing the Pacific Ocean has the ‘conga line’ of topical trouble steaming westward full throttle. The first two systems threaten China with the second (Chan hom) potentially a major hit near Shanghai. The powerful MJO is likely down to the extremely warm waters covering a large part of the Pacific at the moment.

The active western pacific is aiding in an exceptionally strong westerly wind burst.

This will help plummet the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) and help increase the development of this now strong, possibly borderline super El Nino.

Chan Hom also looks set to enhance the SW monsoon over the Philippines.

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As alluded to last evening, these west pac systems bare close watching as these are likely to influence the upper flow across the Lower 48. The first two systems support East, Northeast ridging but the last system, Nangka may well recurve and this supports an Eastern trough.

What’s interesting is that a trough is pushing into California and Southwest this week, likely trimming way back the typical heat you’d expect for this time of year and there’s even model guidance support a sustained ‘negative’ height field through the remainder of the month.

While this is a highly transient or progressive upper pattern with no stuck trough or ridge, it appears the heights do remain supressed over the Southwest. There’s a pretty strong ridge pops over the Rockies/W Plains which would help reduce heights on the East Coast but also the West Coast too. The Southeats on the other hand appears to heat up and remember there’s less rain here and with drier ground…?

GFS operational shows the sustained negative lingering over the Southwest and the back and fourth ridge-trough pattern further east.

GFS ensemble looking similar to the operational

Same idea with the EPS control.

The initial 5 days off all models show the direct influence of straight west track of the first typhoon into Asia.

See video for the discussion.

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