As we well know, May have been rather wet and therefore cool over the Plains but models show the cool/wet area expanding eastwards in June. Soggy May’s in strengthening El Nino years often are a precursor to a cool, damp summer overall and we’re seeing that trend as we head into summer’s opening month with only regional based heat waves looking likely.

For the last 6 weeks, the Northeast has grew increasingly dry and as a result it’s been warmest here compared to normal but June looks to be wetter and therefore could be cooler.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

QPF rainfall shows core of precip next 10 days focusing more over the Northern Tier. Notice the increase on moisture off South Florida…

When models show heights building north over the Northern US with lowering heights into the Gulf/Caribbean, look out! Especially when waters are as warm as they are! This signifies as cool under warm water which increased potential for tropical development underneath.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies look like this through the next 15 days. This is a pattern screaming for something to pool in the subtropics.

The CFSv2 weeklies show a growing area of below normal temps, especially week 3-4 with little warmer than normal.

The CFSv2 monthly has a very wet June across a large area stretching from the Plains to East Coast but focuses cool in the Plains while warm west and east.

The GFS is cooking tropical trouble as early as next week!

The ECMWF also sees something too but to a lesser extent.

See today’s video for the discussion.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]