The past 20 days has seen the eastward progression of the MJO across the Pacific with a ramp up in tropical cyclones initially over the western basin and in the last week, the eastern basin.

The abnormal warmth in the east has aided the rapid formation and intensification of both Andres and Blanca.

The Gulf will be the place to watch in the coming 10 days as the pulse crosses from Pacific into west Atlantic.

 

Note the greens (increased convection) crossing into the Caribbean over the next 10 days before it fades.

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The large scale North America pattern favours development as heights lower across the Southern US into the Gulf/Caribbean.

Up till now, the upper pattern has been moving along pretty fast with, however a -PNA/+NAO has kept the trough in the Southwest/ridge in the Northeast in the means, hence the cool/wet Southwest vs dry/warm Northeast compared to normal in opposite places you’d expect. I explain this is more detail in last night’s write-up.

The models are showing an increased chance of Gulf or Caribbean development in the coming 10 days as the MJO enters the Atlantic.

The model increases precipitation throughout the Caribbean and Gulf over the next 10 days.

Now due to the abnormal warmth in the Gulf and Caribbean and what we saw in the east Pacific as a consequence to abnormally warm water, one must wonder what level the potential is for something stronger than typical for June within the Atlantic basin if something were to pop?

Interesting to see a stronger than normal wind at 200mb extending from the Pacific into Southern California or the Baja. This shows the presence of a stronger than normal sub-tropical jet.

This more amplified phase of the MJO not only supports increased threat of tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf/Carib but also supports a cooler, wetter US pattern.

Check out the CFSv2 2m temp anomalies for the upcoming 4-week period.

I’ll be in Paris this weekend and intend to take time away from anything related to work! Therefore the next update shall be Monday. Have a great weekend.

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