We’ve reached another weekend and it’s yet another ‘tale of two halves’ with another low heavily influencing Northern Ireland and Scotland bringing strong winds and spells of heavy rain, much drier, brighter and therefore warmer into the bulk of England and Wales. Highs will range from 11C in the rain and wind but 21C in the sunny, less windy Southeast. That’s considerably down on today’s expected 25/26C thanks to the passing of a cold front (associated with that low NW of Scotland).

Sunday sees that low push out into the North Sea allowing winds to turn more from the NW, easing in intensity along with the shower activity. Sunday is a better day for Northern Ireland and Scotland, staying decent and mild across England and Wales.

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Once this next low clears east, Sunday’s drier theme is a sign of things to come as a strong high builds and appears to hold through mid next week with enough westward shift to allow fronts to potentially enter UK airspace from both north and south next Thursday.

As stated in yesterday’s posts though, this high pressure system isn’t a particularly warm one, cooled by an unusually cold ocean beneath and so while under strong June sun by day will warm land temperature efficiently to a comfortable 15-21C, evenings within a dry, cool air mass means evenings are cooler than normal and so overall it’s an at or below normal theme.

The 5-day mean 2m temps off the GFS ensemble shows below normal temps throughout the upcoming 15 day period.

The growing cold over the Atlantic has a lot to do with the lack of warmth so far!

The latest run of the CFSv2 now has June below normal over the UK and Ireland.

This was May of course and notice the coolest was in the west, exposed to stronger than normal winds off the Atlantic!

The type of pattern and the model trends tell me that unless something dramatically changes, this is looking like a summer with short lived spells of warmth with Atlantic cool and wet influence never far away. A very different summer compared to the previous two as expected right here all along.

See video for the discussion.

I’m off to Paris tomorrow morning. I will have some brief thoughts in an AM post but there will be no in-depth posts throughout this weekend. Will have a new update Monday morning.

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