Summer 2015
In all honestly, I am still very undecided about where I am going with the upcoming winter. The below CFSv2 and Jamstec runs for the Dec 2015-Feb 2016 period are near opposite but both believable in their own right. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Note the CFSv2 below is going for a cool autumn then warm winter. Wet […]
First and foremost, the system that was a mega rain producer for west-central Florida through the weekend and a possible contender of becoming a depression yesterday is now dwindling as it heads out to sea. Visible satellite is very unimpressive this morning. It was fun and games through the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Northeast yesterday as […]
Tired of this cool, wet theme? Don’t fret, on the whole (except far N/W) we’ve got a more settled pattern developing for the late Wednesday through Saturday period. Unfortunately the next sizable Icelandic low heralds our next spell of wind and rain during Sunday. Before ridging builds in briefly, we’ve got to get through today’s rain spreading NNE through Ireland, Western & […]
The very system which has dropped 10-30 inches of rain around the Tampa Bay area in the last 3-5 days is now showing signs of life as it skirts the Carolina coast. The visible and infrared satellite view this evening suggests the warm coastal waters and a reduction in mid and high level wind shear is having influence, […]
I’m on BBC Radio 4’s ‘What’s The Point Of? tomorrow @ 9am or 9.30pm. Tune in! FM: 92.5–96.1 or online http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06418l5 The Met Office What’s the Point of…?, Series 7 Episode 1 of 4 Quentin Letts begins a new series casting a critical but amicable eye across institutions at the heart of British life, asking the question […]
For folks across Ireland and Scotland in particular, it’s just another autumn day in summer. Just another low that shouldn’t be affecting us at a time. The past two summers we’re quite different with plenty of opportunity to wear shorts, sun screen and enjoy a BBQ. Blame the COLD Atlantic as well as the sharp gradient between colder […]
You don’t need a hurricane, tropical storm or even depression to cause major flooding issues in a flat location. Just an old and dying frontal boundary which gets stuck over 85-degree waters. While shear has exhausted any organisation potential, a large mass of deep convection stuck over Florida for days now has resulted in persistent tropical rains. The flood situation in and around the Tampa Bay […]
I will be the first to say that I have put out some disappointing and poor seasonal forecasts but also some highly successful ones. Comes with the territory. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Probably my most notable of successful seasonal forecasts was winter 2009-10 which went against the mild, wet trend and went against a lot of ‘warm forecasts’. It even got […]
While temperatures climbed into the respectable 24-27C category today (Sunday) across Southern and Eastern England, cloud and outbreaks of rain kept Northern Ireland and Scotland disappointing. Now where have you heard that before? Hum. While tonight’s a wet and breezy one, we actually have a warm front lifting north and during tomorrow (Monday), skies should […]
It’s been a July of contrasts over the Western United States (particularly compared to NORMAL) with record hot and dryness for the Pacific Northwest, cool and wet over the Southwest. The heat has been intensifying in response to worsening drought up in the Pacific Northwest. Seattle, WA has just recorded an all-time record 11 days at or above 90F this […]
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