I will be the first to say that I have put out some disappointing and poor seasonal forecasts but also some highly successful ones. Comes with the territory.
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Probably my most notable of successful seasonal forecasts was winter 2009-10 which went against the mild, wet trend and went against a lot of ‘warm forecasts’. It even got the attention of the media and likely helped put me on the map. However, following another good winter in 2010-11, I busted big time in 2011-12, foolishly calling for another cold winter. Sure, it was one of the worst for a large part of Europe but Ireland and the UK missed out. In recent years of forecasting, I’ve come to realise that you need to understand global drivers, what’s happened in the past and what ingredients put together a certain weather pattern both local and global.
Lack of understanding and indeed not looking at ALL aspects means you run a high risk of failure.
My other very disappointing forecast was summer 2012 and the reason was I failed to look at everything. I’ve learned a great deal from summer 2012 and those lessons have greatly paid off, perhaps allowing summer 2015 to be one of, if not my best summer forecast. I best watch as we’ve August still to go but it appears this season has played out very well following 2 other ‘good summers in 2013 and 2014.
Interestingly this spring played out very similar to that of 2012. Warm and dry. Back in 2012, that record warm, dry March led me into a real false sense of security but I failed to see the El Nino coming on which, like this year, the pattern flipped on it’s head. In 2012, a warm/dry March turned into a wet April and May and there went the summer. This year it was a warm, dry March and April with flip in May.
Albeit, delayed, we saw the same warm, dry early spring followed by wetter 2nd half. El Ninos tend to have dry springs but wet summers. Glasgow had it’s wettest July on record in 2012, until 2015. The success of this summer’s forecast is largely based on the lessons learned from 2012.
As for the upcoming autumn and more importantly, winter, well there’s a great deal of uncertainty.
There’s lots of references and comparisons between this El Nino and 1997. Sure, this is entering strong to super category but there are big differences in anomalies outwith the tropical Pacific.
When it comes to winter forecasts, it would be foolish to straight off call for a warm, wet winter for the US and UK based on winter 1997-98. The reason, GLOBAL SSTA’s are quite different between 1997 and 2015.
1997
Current
Most noticeable, the North Pacific and North Atlantic are opposite of 97. A warmer North Pacific could technically support a colder central/eastern US winter and a cold Atlantic could keep a cool shadow over Ireland and the UK like we’re seeing this summer. I recon the Atlantic low pressure train will be going strong like the previous two winters but lows may maintain more cold with a colder ocean.
This in turn would bring more snow and cold episodes similar to last year. The colder Atlantic last year helped bring at least some winter with decent spells of snow and cold, unlike what you’d get with a +NAO and warm Atlantic winter.
Here’s the latest CFSv2 Dec-Feb temps.
Warm right? Looks awfully like 97-98. Why not, after all this is the strongest El Nino since. The trouble I have with the above is that the Atlantic in 1997 was WARM and a warm Equatorial Pacific and Atlantic led to the obvious, warmth across a large part of the hemisphere. Both Pacific and Atlantic is different this year compared to 1997 and so the output to the atmosphere should be different. The Pacific is warmer further north while the Atlantic is colder.
The Jamstec is going for a cold Western Europe. The model is likely seeing the reflection of cold off the Atlantic. Notice how warm it’s got most of the US. Like the CFSv2 for Europe, it’s seeing another 1997-98 winter.
Bottom line is this, we’ll need to watch how much the oceans warm or cool west of the continents between now and October.
See video for the discussion.
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