For folks across Ireland and Scotland in particular, it’s just another autumn day in summer. Just another low that shouldn’t be affecting us at a time. The past two summers we’re quite different with plenty of opportunity to wear shorts, sun screen and enjoy a BBQ.

Blame the COLD Atlantic as well as the sharp gradient between colder than normal vs warmer than normal. That gradient is supressing a much more southerly and faster jet stream at 40,000ft. Hence unusually deep Atlantic lows and cold days.

For much of mainland Europe, it has been a warm, dry summer. Dry ground and surrounding WARM water has helped boost heights and surface temperatures persistently this year but it’s been opposite further north with surrounding COLD water. A warmer ocean across the North Atlantic would typically push a weaker jet stream north of the UK during July and August but colder waters further south as well as a colder arctic summer has been a faster and further south jet but it’s the sharp contrast between cold and warm as I say that’s responsible for this unusually ‘stormy’ summer.

This setup has led to Northern Ireland’s coldest July since 1993. Of course the strong El Nino now in place in the Pacific may be fuelling the rainfall like it did in 2012.

Look at the upper height field chart from back in July verses the SSTA profile. It’s NOT the jet stream that’s the cause of this poor summer but the ocean that’s influencing the jet from below…

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Opening days of August (anomaly)

Check this latest low. An image you’d expect to see in November.

If the above isn’t impressive enough, check out the below wind stream chart. What a beauty!

Central pressure estimated to be down around 984 mb.

That low is generating 15+ft swells through the Irish Sea while above 4,000ft, 90+ mph gusts are crossing Cairngorm Summit.

Yesterday was just another one of those days where it felt chilly over the North and Western UK and Ireland but felt more like summer in the Southeast of England and particularly down over France where Paris achieved the 30s.

Today won’t be much different, albeit cooler down to the south with 23/24C vs 26C in East Anglia yesterday. If you live on the Moray Coast, temps here may peak close to 21C thanks to shelter, sunshine and downslope effect off the Cairngorms/Grampians.

It’s simply one system after the next sweeping in from the southwest. The next system could be trouble in terms of flood potential. With warm, moisture rich tropical origins, this may bring flooding issues to Ireland and Scotland during tomorrow.

Then the next low pushes in from a more due west direction come late weekend into early next week.

I’m afraid there’s NO SIGN OF ANY RIDGE over the UK proper through the rest of this month and summer 2015!!

See today’s video for the discussion.

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