In all honestly, I am still very undecided about where I am going with the upcoming winter. The below CFSv2 and Jamstec runs for the Dec 2015-Feb 2016 period are near opposite but both believable in their own right.

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Note the CFSv2 below is going for a cool autumn then warm winter. Wet too.

Check out the ‘unprecedented’ contrast between super warm PDO and cold AMO. Probably haven’t seen a better example of this in recorded history while I don’t think there’s been a colder North Atlantic in my lifetime. The driver of our cool summer.

Look at how the model warms the waters surrounding the UK by December. That WOULD make the above shift to warmer into the winter months more plausible.

The Jamstec however is opposite…

Colder waters surrounding the UK and it therefore has a colder and drier than normal winter. Believable too.

The jury is still very much out.

As for the upcoming weekend on into next week. Bar a few showers, Friday isn’t looking too bad with less wind and more sun it will feel warmer for all. Still summer-like in the South at 21-25C.

Saturday looks good with plenty of dry, sunny weather and feeling pleasant by early August standards, 18-25C.

Unfortunately it’s all change and back to our more typical regime come Sunday for Northern and Western areas. Wind increases from the SW later Saturday with rain moving in too with the latest system. Staying dry and fairly warm in the SE corner.

A cool, showery theme into early next week and the latest ECMWF tries to take a rain baring system into Southern England late Monday into Tuesday.

Once that system clears off the Yorkshire coast Wednesday it looks very pleasant with high pressure firmly establishing. This obviously is far out. We shall keep monitoring as we progress through the period.

See this morning’s video for more on the above.

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