While temperatures climbed into the respectable 24-27C category today (Sunday) across Southern and Eastern England, cloud and outbreaks of rain kept Northern Ireland and Scotland disappointing. Now where have you heard that before? Hum.

While tonight’s a wet and breezy one, we actually have a warm front lifting north and during tomorrow (Monday), skies should brighten and the air should warm nicely in response. as a matter of fact, it looks likely that we have our warmest weather in a month coming up. Does it last? Well what do you think?

The reason for this abrupt rise in temperature is simple. We have a rather deep low not that far to our west, sure it’s bringing pretty windy as well as wet conditions across Ireland and western/northern UK but it’s also driving Med source heat north bringing the return of 30s to Paris, upper 20s to London and likely low 20s for central parts of Scotland.

GFS surface charts for the next few days. On the whole, it stays on the unsettled side with frequent spells of rain driven in by an unusually stiff SSW wind. Notice how the low gets closer Tuesday and Wednesday. This means an increase in winds and the removal of the warmth across most of the UK as fronts push in.

By Tuesday-Wednesday, another system pushes in from the SW. This has origins all the way back to Florida and so this thing may bring surprisingly heavy rains across parts of Ireland and the UK mid week.

Note in the 5 day rainfall projection the swath of heavy rain across Ireland and Scotland while it stays largely dry over southern/southeastern England.