Spring 2015
Computer models continue to show the deepening of a low coming off Greenland this weekend that’s expected to present an unseasonably cool, wet and windy open to June. Here’s the morning of June 1 off the latest run of the GFS. Afternoon of June 1 [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] In this morning’s video I show the GFS example of […]
As we approach June the upper air pattern is showing signs of a shift into a more summer-like state. The persistent, anomalous upper trough/cold pool that’s hung over California and the Southwest for much of May appears to be shifting east into the saturated Southern Plains as feedback of wet ground and atmosphere begin to kick […]
In today’s video I show the 1972 example of similar (not exact by any means) SSTA’s with the horseshoe of cold in the Atlantic vs modestly warm Pacific with an El Nino coming on. Out of the last 30+ years, it appears 1972 is closest but the Pacific is very warm and the El Nino […]
May has been an incredibly wet, historic month for rainfall throughout the Southern, Central Plains while things are drying out in the East as well as the West Coast. Even here, a persistent upper low has kept the Southwest unusually cool and wet for the time of year. Like in Texas, the rainfall has been historic […]
May has turned out pretty much as expected back on April 23 with a cooler, wetter outcome than the March-April period with little real warmth to speak of. In fact I believe the warmest temperatures was 23/24C, short of the April maximum. Many days during May have been cooler than normal, breezy and showery with longer […]
We’ve seen some wild swings in temperature in recent weeks across the Lower 48 but the one coming could be one of the greatest in many a year! The GFS, while backed off some on overnight lows Fri into Sat across the interior Northeast, still shows 20s and 30s with a crop killing freeze threat. As you […]
In this morning’s video I show you the GFS surface for the upcoming bank holiday weekend and next week. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] In the below write-up, here’s the ECMWF surface which is pretty much consistent with the GFS showing the continued high and low pressure fight. Overall the high wins but there’s an almost daily back […]
Based on what we’ve seen in the last 2-3 weeks with all the rain over the Plains and increasingly dry Southeast, I think the pattern is showing us where the above and below average temperatures are going this summer. With already over a foot of rain in the ground across a broad area of Texas […]
As the equatorial Pacific continues to heat, so the North Atlantic continues to cool and it’s that increasingly ‘colder-than-normal North Atlantic’ that’s catching my attention. Our current and recent past weather pattern here in Western Europe has a predominantly westerly or Atlantic pattern and with our winds blowing off this colder than normal water, we are seeing […]
Through May 12th, here’s how the month is looking temperature wise across the US. Notice that it’s warmest where it was coldest during February and where it’s become pretty dry with NYC seeing the most rain free days since 2001. It’s also been cool where it’s been very wet. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] We see a temporary cold […]
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