May has turned out pretty much as expected back on April 23 with a cooler, wetter outcome than the March-April period with little real warmth to speak of. In fact I believe the warmest temperatures was 23/24C, short of the April maximum. Many days during May have been cooler than normal, breezy and showery with longer spells of rain, especially across Northern and Western parts.
As we head into June, it looks like the trough pattern holds and we remain cooler and slightly wetter than normal. However, despite calling for an overall cooler and wetter than normal summer (June-August period), unlike May, I believe June should produce a spell of dry and warmth for a time.
The GFS ensemble shows a cool, unsettled open to summer 2015.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
CFSv2 weeklies also shows the same.
500mb height anomalies (note week 2) trough firmly in place extending from Canada to Scotland (zonal or westerly flow)
Precipitation above normal week 2 over UK.
I think there’s a window week 2-3 of June for some ridging and summer warmth to extend north from the Azores and Med into France, UK, Denmark which may push temps above normal widely for 5-7 days.
However, both GFS ensemble, CFSv2 and other models this year have a habit of pumping above normal heights or ridging back into the UK only to be removed before the period. So, I am cautiously optimistic about this potential warm spell between June 10-20.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Based on the past 30 days, the strengthening El Nino etc, I believe June should average normal to slightly above average rainfall wise, normal to slightly below normal temperature wise with the return of a trough and cooler, more unsettled pattern during the last 10 days of the month. That’s if we get a surge of summer towards mid month.
CFSv2 currently shows a drier than normal June but also average to below average temperature wise.
The Atlantic continues to cool to levels not seen in May since 1994.
Examples of the last time we had this cold of an AMO in May. Courtesy of Stuart Markham.
Had it not been for the El Nino, this summer may have been a pretty dry one and because of the increasingly cool water, I suspect temperatures could be cool overall.
See this morning’s video for latest thoughts on the late autumn/early winter period.
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