Based on what we’ve seen in the last 2-3 weeks with all the rain over the Plains and increasingly dry Southeast, I think the pattern is showing us where the above and below average temperatures are going this summer.

With already over a foot of rain in the ground across a broad area of Texas up into Oklahoma and there’s still this on the way…

Next 7 days

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I think this is where the core of cool will be centred whereas the heat will begin to build over California as well as the Southeast up into possibly as far as the Northeast.

What was the initial trigger for this drought busting rain? El Nino, check out the current global SSTA’s.

Notice the increasingly dry East due to a rain shadow effect from the Appalachians.

While the El Nino turned on the hose over the Southern Plains, it’s seasonal feedback that kicks in later because it likes to rain where the ground is very wet just like it likes to get hot where it’s dry. I agree with the Jamstec with a ring of warm surrounding a lake of cool.

CFSv2 sees the cool, wet summer but with less warmth around the coasts.

MAJOR May chill now coast to coast across the US today.

Current 2m temps/anomalies according to the GFS.

Friday AM

The GFS continues to suggest a devastating freeze over the interior Northeast Saturday morning.

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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