Through May 12th, here’s how the month is looking temperature wise across the US.
Credit: WSI Energy
Notice that it’s warmest where it was coldest during February and where it’s become pretty dry with NYC seeing the most rain free days since 2001. It’s also been cool where it’s been very wet.
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We see a temporary cold blast come out of Canada this next 5 days. Check this out…
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
I say temporary because here’s the following 5 days according to the GFS op.
Credit: AccuWeather Pro
Many in the once drought stricken Southern Plains will see their wettest May on record and the ECMWF ensemble shows plenty more rain to come over the next 15 days. A cool shadow will hold in this ‘wet region’. Notice it’s becoming increasingly dry in the Southeast, look for it to get hot here come June into July!
Credit: WSI Energy
The latest run of the Jamstec for the summer sees the wet Plains and has it cool over much of the US but warmer than normal around the coasts, largely down to warmer than normal surrounding waters and increasingly dry ground from Florida to New England as well as the ongoing CA drought.
It’s looking like a very wet summer across a large area of the country.
The model is going for the STRONG Nino with a likely peaking in the late summer/early fall. It’s heading for 1997 strength.
Interestingly, Nino region 3.4 is warming faster than past episodes including 1997.
Current global SST anomalies.
The one very big difference between the 2015 El Nino and the 1997-98 episode is the Atlantic was warm to very warm while it’s cold this time around. This will have to be considered when making up the 2015-16 winter forecast for both the US and Europe.
What’s also interesting is that the Jamstec weakens and shifts west the warm pool come winter (moderate to strong Modoki style El Nino). This could be crucial for the US in terms of winter or no winter!
Precip really increases for California through the fall and winter. I think we could see something similar to what the Plains are getting now, in California by next spring.
Will have a video tomorrow.
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