In this morning’s video I show you the GFS surface for the upcoming bank holiday weekend and next week.

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In the below write-up, here’s the ECMWF surface which is pretty much consistent with the GFS showing the continued high and low pressure fight. Overall the high wins but there’s an almost daily back and fourth with high winning one day, fronts winning the next across the NORTHERN/WESTERN UK.

A strong Azores high looks likely to have dominance over Wales and England but it’s just far enough away that Icelandic low pressure will keep things cooler, breezier and wetter across Northern Ireland and Scotland. Fronts sinking south will weaken and dry out as they enter higher pressure.

Day 0-5 mean 500mb height anomalies.

Notice that it’s a strong ridge but it’s far enough west that England and Wales reaps the benefit but leaves enough weakness for fronts to scrape NI and Scotland.

Looks like both models shows low pressure regaining more ground over the UK and Ireland to end next week.

Hope you’ve had a chance to read yesterday’s post on the cold Atlantic and the strengthening El Nino. Also, yesterday’s video failed to upload but it’s now available so check it out.

ECMWF surface through the next 7 days.

The day 5-10 off the ECMWF 5-day mean 500mb height anomalies show a weakening of the Atlantic ridge a lowering of heights. This suggests, cooler, wetter weather for a broader area of the UK and near continent.

We remain below normal temperature wise through the next 10 days.

Next Europe post/video will be on Sunday. Have a great weekend.

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