Seasonal Forecasts
Tuesday will be a near carbon copy of Monday, persistent rain will stream into the western side of Scotland with high elevations capturing the bulk of the moisture leaving it much drier further east. But over West Highland recording stations, we could see rain totals mounting to 3, maybe 4″ over this soggy 48 hour […]
On the road but here’s a few thoughts on the upcoming hurricane season. Straight up… the warm PDO with strengthening El Nino (becoming a basin-wide event), cold AMO signal DOES NOT favour a big 2015 season, however that’s when looking BASIN-WIDE. Total numbers are likely to be below normal but this doesn’t tell the whole […]
The much anticipated and rather dramatic NW to SE divide is setting up nicely as we commence the new week. A frontal boundary marking the northern flank of high pressure will drop south over Scotland later today and this will settle overhead for a couple of days making for a rather soggy affair for particularly the West Highlands. [s2If […]
The winter hangover is set to persist over the Eastern United States as we enter April’s 2nd half. The chilly theme which temporarily breaks this week, returns because of the stubborn feedback of exceptionally warm water extending from the eastern equatorial Pacific to Alaska’s southern shore and likely by the ongoing stratospheric warming we are […]
We have a lot of interesting weather coming up this week and in the coming weeks. Starting with the upcoming 7 days, look for a big time north-south divide over the UK, especially as we enter the middle part of the week. Today’s wet and breezy system that’s even bringing snow back to high level […]
It’s a soaker of a weekend and week ahead along the Gulf Coast as warm, humid air lifts north out of the Gulf up against a stalled frontal boundary on the southern flank of a large high pressure system. That high dominates the Heartland into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. That high and it’s position to the SW means a […]
There are some strong similarities between this year and last. SSTA’s, with slight but important differences, the cold spring, slow start to severe weather season and the winter pattern overall. Here are the global SSTA’s this year vs last. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] With warmer water off all three US coastlines (West, Gulf, East Coast) expect wetter conditions and in turn lower heights for […]
Latest run of the CFSv2 I think reflects well my UK summer idea but doesn’t for the rest of Europe. I have it warmer, drier into the South and Southwest (Iberia), cooler, wetter for the North (Scandinavia). Latest 700mb anomaly 2m temp anomalies. Rather than the warm, dry anticyclonic pattern of June-July 2013 and […]
Back in late March I highlighted the period around the end of April’sfirst week as the period to watch for the first significant warm surge with first 20s. That has indeed materialised nicely. I also had Friday as the day for warmest temps as southerly winds would pick up as a system out in the […]
As forecasted nearly a week ago, the south winds are blowing and transporting Mediterranean source air up through the British Isles. Call it an April version of the Spanish plume! Highs today topped close to 21C (70F) at Fyvie Castle, Aberdeenshire thanks to strong sun and some downslope compressional warming off the Grampians. Tomorrow, we should get to similar values […]
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