Tuesday will be a near carbon copy of Monday, persistent rain will stream into the western side of Scotland with high elevations capturing the bulk of the moisture leaving it much drier further east. But over West Highland recording stations, we could see rain totals mounting to 3, maybe 4″ over this soggy 48 hour stretch beneath to near stalled boundary overhead.

Further south and into the sunshine across England and Wales, temps will continue rising from yesterday’s values, expect widely 18-21C, somewhere should hit 23-24C in and around London.

During tomorrow the boundary slides south with rain easing into N England. This will allow Scotland to brighten and dry out but it remains cool with highs of 8-12C. South of the boundary and the warmth builds further. Widely 19-23C from the Midlands into southern England, east Wales but I expect a potential 26C around London.

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By Thursday, the boundary sinks into southern Britain and this pushes the unusually warm air back into the near continent. Friday temps will return to something more typical of mid-April at between 12-16C.

Here’s how it’s looking over the next few days on the GFS surface maps. No change from what’s been shown here really since late last week!

By the weekend, a cool source high (north of the boundary) builds over the UK making for a dry, settled and comfortable weekend. Cool by night with rural frost possible but mild in the sun by day!

GFS & ECMWF Agree On Settled Pattern Next Week…

As for next week, the GFS builds the high over the Northern UK late weekend into early next week which means the continuation of a dry, settled theme but notice a deep trough (for time of year) dives into Europe. With a ridge core centred just north of Scotland, an easterly flow looks likely for the UK. The model in fact holds the ridge in place ALL of next week.

As we go forward, I am watching closely the warming of the equatorial Pacific as the El Nino strengthens. With waters warmed up around the UK in the last 10 days, I am watching for a potential wetter pattern developing late April into May. The models remain with the trough returning late month but it’s a question of how wet does the pattern get as this could be very important with regard to summer temps.

The warmth as well as frequent high pressure pattern we’re getting reminds me of early spring 2012. March was record warm and near record dry but while we enjoyed summer-like weather, the eastern Pacific continued warming and then the switch was flicked and we got a soggy April which set the tone for the summer ahead. I can’t help but think we’ve some right dreary weather on the way in May after what will be a drier, warmer than normal April.

See today’s video for the discussion.

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