On the road but here’s a few thoughts on the upcoming hurricane season.

Straight up… the warm PDO with strengthening El Nino (becoming a basin-wide event), cold AMO signal DOES NOT favour a big 2015 season, however that’s when looking BASIN-WIDE. Total numbers are likely to be below normal but this doesn’t tell the whole story because waters are abnormally warm further west over the western basin and off the East and Gulf Coast of the US.

The persistent +NAO during the past 8-12 months has forced strong cooling of the eastern equatorial Atlantic and with warming over the eastern equatorial Pacific, this decreases tropical cyclone development in the traditional tropical region with increased westerlies, drier air across the Atlantic.

Check out the difference between global SST’s back on Jan 1st vs now.

Notice the cooling in the eastern Atlantic but warming in the western basin, especially the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast US coast.

While numbers should be lower than normal, the fear is for the US and ‘in-close development’ over that very warm water off the coast. 1992 was a quiet, unfavourable year but that ONE hurricane known as Andrew redrew the map and history of South Florida.

Florida has not seen a hurricane hit in a record shattering 9 years. The last was Wilma back in the epic year of 2005. The old record in 5 years set back 1980-1984. Could their luck run out 10 years later? Water’s are boiling around the Sunshine state right now…

See today’s video for more on the US pattern.

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