There are some strong similarities between this year and last. SSTA’s, with slight but important differences, the cold spring, slow start to severe weather season and the winter pattern overall.

Here are the global SSTA’s this year vs last.

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With warmer water off all three US coastlines (West, Gulf, East Coast) expect wetter conditions and in turn lower heights for South, Southeast, possibly the Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley but because of the drought and natural feedback of desert terrain/geography, that warm water has the opposite effect for California and Southwest with warmer, drier conditions once we get into the heart of the warm season.

That warm water within the Gulf and along the Eastern Seaboard will likely attract in-close tropical cyclone activity. 1992 was a quiet El Nino driven hurricane season but we of course had devastating Andrew! Rain storms and hurricanes could make for a very wet summer in the Southeast and East and heavy precip could lift into the Midwest.

That warm water also increases humidity keeping it warmer than normal on the East Coast but because of the warm Gulf of Alaska, expect another warm, dry summer in Alaska and in response, a trough should extend into the Midwest and East. The western ridge could extend into the N Rockies and Plains where ground will be dry.

The CFSv2 sees the Southern rains, keeps the N Plains, Midwest and Northeast drier than normal but notice how it extends that drier than normal in the Mid-South and Texas mid to late summer. It may be in response to the abnormally warm GOA.

The Northern Plains is a real concern as I see soils continuing to dry out here and in response, heat could be a factor especially July and August!

Notice also the very wet April we’ve going now. This global pattern and the current drivers including the El Nino tends to amplify precipitation over the South and Southeast up into the TN Valley as chilly troughs pull back into the West then slide east. Southbound troughs vs abnormally warm water attracts heavy rainfall.

As we head into the warmer months, drought/warm water off the WC feeds back to stronger than normal heights but once we enter the cooler fall, look for what we have now, troughs pulling back west bringing wetter conditions to the very areas driest during the winter.

As for the current and nearer term pattern, look for cooler air masses to come back into the East.

CFSv2 weeklies

See video for today’s discussion.

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