Latest run of the CFSv2 I think reflects well my UK summer idea but doesn’t for the rest of Europe. I have it warmer, drier into the South and Southwest (Iberia), cooler, wetter for the North (Scandinavia).

Latest 700mb anomaly

2m temp anomalies.

 

Rather than the warm, dry anticyclonic pattern of June-July 2013 and 2014, I believe we have a more summer-like version of the winter just gone. i.e, more Atlantic influence with the Icelandic low rather than the Azores high being the dominant player.

Late summers here tend to be warmer than early summer in strengthening El Nino years! We shall see.