Back in late March I highlighted the period around the end of April’sfirst week as the period to watch for the first significant warm surge with first 20s. That has indeed materialised nicely. I also had Friday as the day for warmest temps as southerly winds would pick up as a system out in the Atlantic approaches. Many only catching onto this mid week…

Look for 21C in the northeast Scotland sun trap while 22-23C is possible under the hazy, smoggy skies around Greater London and the Southeast.

Wind, heavy rain and a much fresher air mass pushes through tonight. Snow levels will drop too… Tomorrow, look for highs of 7-10C in the North, 10-16C in the South. Snow returns to the Scottish mountains, possibly higher parts of Northern Ireland.

Why was mornings to start this week cloudy, misty and foggy compared to clear, cooler with frost late week? Our air went from sub-tropical maritime to dry continental.

850mb temps this afternoon compared to tomorrow afternoon.

Read last night’s write-up for details on next week. A very north-south divided pattern.

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Despite my summer forecast being out back on April 1st, I continue to watch the pattern closely both locally and globally as well as the shift/progression in SSTA’s.

Interestingly, the difference in global SSTA’s now and this time last year are marginal.

However the reason I am going for a cooler, wetter theme in a line from Northern Ireland to Denmark, warmer, drier further south is because of the strengthening El Nino in the equatorial Pacific and with colder water extending from Newfoundland across to and surrounding particularly the Northern UK, I suspect heights will be lower here with a more active, albeit weak summer jet stream.

This time last year as you can see above, waters were warmer, the El Nino was also weaker. Notice the warmth up against South America whereas it was cold last year. I believe our pattern turns wetter as we head into late April as the atmosphere begins to reflect a more summer-like state and we get new response from the warm and cold anomalies below.

In saying that, we have been quite dry so far this April and March was also dry. I am keeping an eye on this because a drier 2nd half to April and through May than expected could suggest a drier and warmer June than expected, especially since waters have turned colder. Drier soil and colder surrounding water supports more positive than negative.

We do turn wetter across the North next week and models do show a stronger Icelandic trough that will influence us late April into the start of May.

Check out the CFSv2 weeklies and the reversal of heights week 3-4.

No video today but will have one again tomorrow…

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