Seasonal Forecasts
The first of many noticeable cold fronts is currently pushing SE over the UK leading to a noteworthy dip in temperature. This active frontal boundary brought a fair amount of wind and rain overnight, fuelled by a decent air mass contrast. Ahead of it, mild, Mediterranean source air, behind it was ocean-modified Greenland air. Nothing unusual for the time […]
Hurricane Patricia has went from Category 1, 85 mph system to Category 5, 200 mph tempest within a mere 30 hours! It threatens Mexico central Pacific coast with catastrophic destruction tonight! Here’s some imagery and analysis. Eye of Patricia is within 50 miles of the coast. Patricia exploded over unusually warm, El Nino induced […]
Because of the wild variation and swings month-by-month across the Lower 48, November has been a tough call as to what we can expect. While the heart of summer was cool and wet for a large swathe of the country, both spring and fall has seen wild swings with a hot West, cool East then […]
We have a much more active westerly air flow now influencing NW Europe but the worst of the weather through the next week or so appears to hold over far western areas which includes Ireland and west or southwest parts of the British Isles, largely down to the fact that we’ve a strong high pressure system […]
Up until the 20th of the month, October has been dry across the UK and Ireland with many places receiving barely 20% of normal rainfall. As for temperatures, well after a warm start, the average is now back below normal thanks to a persistent northerly high pulling air in from Russia. Change has indeed arrived with a more typical, […]
We have a highly volatile situation unfolding over the Southern Plains through the next 5 days as an upper low swings out of the Southwest into Texas. As it moves out over the plains, it shall plug very moisture rich air from the Gulf. The connection between the two systems will present a potential major flash flood problem with a […]
There’s an interesting divide in long range model solution for the upcoming winter. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] I strongly believe individual forecasters lean towards their favoured model where it’s warm or cold and it’s interesting to see the growing contrast in forecasts coming out. WSI shows a warm Europe winter with little to no blocking. AccuWeather is quite different. To […]
While a major Texas/Southern Plains flood event is ready to unfold with rich tropical moisture lifting north and merging with a strong cut off low sliding east out of the Four Corners, it’s the West Pacific that’s catching my eye. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] TWO typhoons look destined recurve. The ECMWF already has the monster trough diving into the […]
Now that the large stone has been rolled away (blocking high) a more classic autumn pattern resumes for Northwest Europe with a series of systems set to bring wind and rain across Ireland and the UK this week into next along with the return of the autumn temperature rollercoaster. The first of two systems this […]
As expected, old man winter has made an early appearance over eastern Canada and the US following a very warm September. This was Sep. Check out the flip through the first half of Oct. Yesterday’s departures were impressive. An unusually cold and strong upper flow drove by far the coldest air of the season south and with […]
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