Up until the 20th of the month, October has been dry across the UK and Ireland with many places receiving barely 20% of normal rainfall. As for temperatures, well after a warm start, the average is now back below normal thanks to a persistent northerly high pulling air in from Russia.

Change has indeed arrived with a more typical, turbulent Atlantic westerly flow driving lows in over Northwest Europe but the big question is does this pattern persist?

When it comes to the CFSv2, you’d be safer throwing a dice as every new run is different.

Check out it’s last 3rd runs for November precipitation.

Issue: Sep 21-30

Issue: Oct 1-10

Issue: Oct 11-20

I stand by my original idea o a more active and wetter November with mix of wind, rain and calm but cold in between.

One of the closest analogues to this year is 2009 with a strikingly similar cool, wet summer and now dry, tranquil first half to autumn.

Precipitation-wise, it’s been a bookend summer for UK and West/Northwest Europe with dry spring and autumn, wet in between. After a dry summer, south-central Europe has turned very wet, opposite of the UK all thanks to the variability of seasons with the same drivers in place, i.e El Nino etc.

Rainfall anomaly since August 22.

If it follows November’s footsteps, well we’re in for an increasingly wet month. That month saw the incredible 1-day rainfall record set at Seathwaite Farm, Cumbria with devastating flooding.

After being stuck in negative during summer, the NAO flipped positive during November which helped build snow and cold over Eurasia while Western Europe get soaked.

GFS 10-day rainfall forecast. Turning much wetter for UK/Ireland.

GFS 10-day Snow forecast.

The NAO is projected to flip positive into November.

The below Canadian shows a wetter solution and similar upper setup to my idea.

500mb height anomaly

2m temperature anomaly

Precipitation anomaly

This years North Atlantic sea surface temperature profile also looks somewhat similar to late November 2009. Warmest water compared to normal positioned north of UK and with tripole of warm-cold-warm helps support above normal heights in high latitudes during the winter months.

Late November 2009

Now

Sneak peak at the Canadian model for December!!

500mb height anomaly

2 metre temperature anomaly

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Official Winter Forecast 2015-16 will be released here on SUNDAY November 1st.

 

Tags: el nino 2015, ENSO, europe weather, Europe winter forecast, featured, monthly-outlook, nao, seasonal outlook, uk weather