We have a much more active westerly air flow now influencing NW Europe but the worst of the weather through the next week or so appears to hold over far western areas which includes Ireland and west or southwest parts of the British Isles, largely down to the fact that we’ve a strong high pressure system sitting over Europe. Friday through Sunday looks very unsettled with a big swing in temperature.

Ahead of the next approaching front, it’s mild with an increase in southerly winds that’s pulling air up from the Med. However late today through the overnight, the front arrives and slowly crosses Scotland and UK west to east bringing a spell of heavy and persistent rain along with a gusty SW wind. Into tomorrow and that front moves into eastern areas eventually clearing out into the North Sea and behind it, winds veer more westerly with colder, ocean-modified air from Greenland crossing us. This will allow showers to turn wintry over Highland and Grampian for a time but this system eventually clears, wind drop before they freshen from the south once again ahead of the next front associated with another Atlantic low.

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Check out the below 850mb temps and the up and down swing in air mass.

Early this AM.

Early Sunday

Monday

First snows of autumn are expected over the tops of the Highlands and Grampian once this front passes and introduces colder air.

Then into next week and we return to the mild southerly flow ahead of not one but two fairly deep lows. They will come up against resistance from the high building west over Europe and so this restricts the storms eastward progression. Latest model runs show the centre of low pressure staying off the SW coast of Ireland but strong SSE winds and spells of heavy rain will lead to fairly miserable conditions across Ireland, Northern Ireland and mainly Southwest to Western Britain to start then the front does reach right across the UK. Looks like a lot of rain will come down through the first half of next week as warm, moist Mediterranean air gets pulled north thanks to a low to the west and high to the east.

Upcoming 7 day rainfall totals. Over 3-4 inches expected in western Scotland upslopes.

Looks like this more active pattern holds at least through first 10 days of November. Note the EPS control builds heights over northeast Europe through next 15 days. I suspect colder air will filter into eastern Europe through November with this setup. Similar to November 2009.

2m temp anomalies. Note day 10-15 over eastern Europe.

I expect it to maintain for majority of November with increase in rainfall as month progresses. See today’s video for the discussion.

This is the flip I highlighted last month!

SEE MY NOVEMBER OUTLOOK RELEASED YESTERDAY…

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